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Bitcoin falls below $70,000 amid macroeconomic pressure
Bitcoin ($BTC) retreated from key levels due to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical factors. According to Coinglass, the sharp decline in price resulted in $323.96 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours.
Analysts say the pressure on prices was also driven by weak U.S. employment data and the uncompromising rhetoric of U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran.
Pressure from short-term investors
According to CoinMarketCap, at the time of publication the leading cryptocurrency was trading around $68,250, losing momentum after a recent rally to $74,000.
Bitcoin daily price movement. Source: CoinMarketCap.
Against this backdrop, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost recorded one of the largest spikes in short-term holder activity in recent months.
Source: Darkfost.
According to him, since the peak this group of investors has transferred more than 27,000 $BTC to exchanges to lock in profits.
“Short-term holders began selling the asset almost immediately after its move toward $74,000 with an entry price around $68,000,” the analyst explained.
He added that the behavior may be emotional but still rational given negative macroeconomic forecasts and the current news environment.
Heading toward $40,000?
Technical analyst Mandrake FX believes the market has entered a phase of institutional distribution.
“After reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the price corrected by 52%. This dynamic matches the classic cycle of transition into a bearish phase,” he said.
According to the analyst, four independent valuation methods point to a possible decline toward the $40,000 zone.
One of them, the MVRV Z-Score model, which compares the network’s market value to its realized price, indicates a target range of $38,000–$45,000.
This also aligns with the logarithmic growth channel, whose lower boundary lies in the same region, according to Mandrake FX.
Bitcoin technical analysis. Source: Mandrake FX.
Another key reference point is the 200-week simple moving average (200W SMA).
“This level currently stands at $58,000, but historically the bottom of a bearish cycle forms 10–18% below this level. That suggests a range of $46,000–$52,000, with a potential drop to $40,000 in the event of deep capitulation,” the analyst explained.
He added that at the current price Bitcoin still remains above its main long-term valuation benchmarks.
Mandrake FX expects that if the intermediate support at $63,000 and the macro level at $58,000 are broken, the structural path could open toward $50,000 liquidity and a final accumulation zone around $40,000–$42,000.
“Any attempts to rally toward $80,000 should be considered a bull trap,” the analyst concluded.
See also: "Bitcoin’s rise to $74,000 could turn out to be a trap"
