Українська
Русский
English
Bitcoin market participants expect a price surge to $75,000
The price of Bitcoin has increased by approximately 2.6% over the past 24 hours. The asset briefly tested the $72,000 level before experiencing a slight pullback. This movement occurred during an attempt to break through a local resistance zone that had limited price movement for several days.
At first glance, the current chart structure hints at a possible bull trap. Such a situation occurs when a breakout is quickly followed by a decline. However, a closer examination of the derivatives and spot markets suggests a different scenario. Instead of investors locking in losses, the market still holds a significant volume of short positions, which could fuel another upward move.
Conflicting signals from technical indicators
On the four-hour Bitcoin chart, a technical pattern known as a “cup and handle” is forming. Traders traditionally interpret this pattern as a bullish continuation signal.
An important detail lies in the structure itself: the neckline slopes downward, while the upper boundary of the handle follows nearly the same angle. As a result, the breakout levels for both parts of the pattern nearly coincide.
The overlap of resistance zones confirms the pattern if the barrier is successfully broken. However, this also increases the likelihood of a false move if traders defend this level.
Breakout pattern. Source: TradingView
When Bitcoin’s price rose above the combined resistance line, the formation appeared complete. The theoretical target of the pattern is measured from the bottom to the base, meaning the estimated upside potential is about 10% from the breakout zone.
However, the breakout itself revealed a potential risk factor. Bitcoin briefly moved above $72,000, but sellers quickly stepped in, creating a long upper wick on the chart.
Analyzing the chart using the RSI indicator, another warning emerges.
Between March 10 and March 13, Bitcoin’s price formed a new high, while the RSI remained below its previous peak.
This divergence is known as a bearish divergence, which usually indicates weakening buying momentum despite rising prices.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $72,000 on the four-hour timeframe, the divergence could trigger a local correction.
BTC divergence risk. Source: TradingView
Technical traps only work when traders take the wrong positions.
Negative funding rates in the derivatives market
Data from the derivatives market shows that traders are not rushing aggressively into the breakout.
Open interest, which reflects the total value of all active futures contracts, increased alongside the market. On March 9, Bitcoin open interest was about $21.4 billion. It has now risen to approximately $23.49 billion, representing an increase of around 10%.
Typically, rising open interest alongside rising prices signals growing speculative interest. However, another key indicator suggests otherwise.
The funding rate, which shows whether long or short positions dominate the futures market, remains negative, currently around –0.014%.
Funding indicates bearish sentiment. Source: Santiment
Negative funding suggests short positions dominate, meaning many traders are still betting on a decline despite the upward breakout.
In such conditions, the expected bull trap may be harder to form because the market is not overheated with optimism.
At the same time, the dominance of shorts could set the stage for a short squeeze, where further price increases force bearish traders to close their positions, pushing the market even higher.
Bitcoin outflows from exchanges indicate rising buying pressure
On-chain data on exchange flows shows that tokens continue to be withdrawn from trading platforms, which usually signals accumulation.
The Exchange Net Position Change metric tracks how many tokens move onto or off exchanges. More negative values indicate that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin en masse, which often reduces selling pressure.
On March 9, the metric recorded an outflow of about –40,840 BTC from exchanges. It has now dropped to –53,823 BTC, meaning the outflow increased by 31.7%.
This suggests that spot investors are buying Bitcoin and immediately withdrawing their coins, reducing the supply available for immediate sale.
BTC spot market. Source: Glassnode
Amid bearish sentiment in the derivatives market and increasing exchange outflows, conditions appear favorable for continued upward movement.
Although the chart structure initially resembles a bull trap, positioning data suggests many participants still do not believe in the rally. This skepticism could become additional fuel for another upward move.
If Bitcoin manages to reclaim $72,000, the RSI divergence will likely weaken and the breakout structure could regain momentum.
The nearest resistance levels are $73,800 and the $75,100 zone. A move into this range would represent about 5% growth from current prices, consistent with the 10% target implied by the cup-and-handle pattern.
If resistance cannot be broken, Bitcoin could fall to $70,400, and then to the support level at $68,900. A breakdown below $68,900 would strengthen the bearish scenario in the short term.
Bitcoin price analysis. Source: TradingView
For now, the technical picture suggests a possible bull trap, but the market does not appear eager to fall into it. With many traders still holding short positions and spot demand continuing to rise, Bitcoin still has a chance to move toward the $75,000 zone.
See also: "Analysts publish resistance levels for Bitcoin, which has recently shown a bullish trend"
