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Bitcoin Price Falls Below $72,500 Amid Accelerating U.S. Inflation and Trump’s New Strike on Iran
Bitcoin updated its local low, reaching $72,462 — a level not seen since April 13. A convergence of several negative factors put pressure on an already weakened market.
1-week $BTC/USD chart and 200 EMA. Source: Bitstamp.
Inflation “Back in Full Force”
The key trigger for the decline was April data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This indicator is considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE rose by 0.4% month over month and by 3.8% year over year. The latter figure was the highest since 2023.
The analytical outlet The Kobeissi Letter emphasized on X that the Fed’s key inflation indicator was almost twice the 2% target. “Inflation is back in full force,” the post said. The rise in PCE increases uncertainty over the timing of possible interest-rate cuts, which traditionally weighs on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
New U.S. military strikes on Iran added further pressure to the market. Although reports of negotiations over a 60-day ceasefire awaiting President Trump’s signature partly softened the negative backdrop — with U.S. stock indices hitting new records — Bitcoin failed to hold its ground.
Key Resistance Levels
Traders focused on Bitcoin’s 2025 price low below the $75,000 mark. According to analysts at Castillo Trading, bulls need to reclaim this level by the weekly candle close.
4-hour $BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Castillo Trading.
From above, pressure is coming from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA), which are once again acting as resistance. Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted on X the similarity between the current reaction and the January scenario of this year — after a test of the horizontal level and a retest of the 200-day moving averages. In his view, until confirmation of another scenario appears, the structure looks like a sequence of lower highs within a downtrend.
1-day $BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Daan Crypto Trades.
AI Opinion
Analysis of historical patterns shows that Bitcoin’s reaction to PCE data has a persistent character. In May 2023, when core PCE came in at 4.7% year over year, Bitcoin similarly fell below $26,400 — and just as quickly partially recovered. The current situation, however, is complicated by a structural factor that goes beyond inflation rhetoric: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of more than $1 billion in a week — and this came after record inflows of $1.97 billion just one month earlier. A reversal in institutional flows of this scale means that the market is losing the very “marginal buyer” that had supported every pullback since January 2024.
Notably, U.S. stock indices reached new records against the backdrop of the same data, while Bitcoin failed to follow them. This divergence raises a logical question: is $BTC today a safe-haven asset, a risk asset, or something else entirely — an instrument whose correlation with the market changes depending on who is holding it at any given moment?
See also: "Gold Accelerates Its Decline After Breaking Key Support"
