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Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Faces Pressure Near $75K as IBIT Outflows Reach an Eight-Day Streak
Bitcoin continues to face growing pressure after failing to reclaim the $82,800 resistance zone earlier this month. The latest correction has pushed $BTC toward the $75,000 area, where traders are now watching for signs of stabilization. At the same time, institutional sentiment has weakened, as BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF recorded another day of strong outflows.
Bitcoin Holds Critical Support Amid Weakening Momentum
Bitcoin traded at $75,600 on Tuesday, remaining below the main short-term moving averages. The asset continues to trade below the 20-day EMA near $77,800 and the 50-day EMA near $76,700. As a result, buyers are struggling to regain strong upside control.
The latest decline also pushed $BTC into a major Fibonacci support cluster between $75,000 and $76,000. Traders are now closely watching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $76,033. This zone could determine Bitcoin’s next path.
In addition, technical indicators still show mixed signals. The 200-day EMA near $81,400 remains the main resistance barrier for bulls.
Bitcoin price action. Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, Bollinger Band values near 0.30 point to possible oversold conditions in the near term. Therefore, short-term recovery attempts remain possible if buyers defend the current support levels.
On the other hand, Bitcoin must reclaim $76,033 and $76,800 to improve short-term sentiment. A breakout above these levels could trigger a move toward $77,800 and eventually $81,400. However, sellers still dominate the broader structure.
If bearish momentum strengthens, $BTC could quickly return to the $75,000 support level. Additional downside targets include $73,933 and $71,832.
Open Interest and Exchange Flows Show Cautious Positioning
Bitcoin derivatives activity still reflects elevated leverage despite recent price weakness. Open interest rose sharply during Bitcoin’s rally toward the $120,000 area earlier this year. Later, the metric cooled sharply as the correction phase accelerated.
Source: Coinglass
Open interest recently declined toward the $56 billion area. This drop is likely connected to long liquidations and reduced speculative exposure. However, the metric now looks stable while $BTC trades between $75,000 and $80,000. As a result, traders may be cautiously rebuilding positions near current levels.
Source: Coinglass
In addition, exchange-flow data still supports long-term accumulation behavior. Large exchange outflows dominated for several months, especially from October to February. Such withdrawals often indicate that investors are moving Bitcoin into cold storage.
However, periodic inflow spikes appeared during volatile periods in February and April. These moves suggested temporary profit-taking activity during sharp market swings.
BlackRock ETF Outflows Increase Pressure
Institutional demand has also weakened recently. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded approximately $192.3 million in net outflows on May 26. The fund has now reported eight consecutive days of withdrawals.
The broader U.S. Bitcoin ETF market has lost more than $2 billion since May 14. Notably, May 18 marked the largest single-day outflow event, with $648.64 million leaving spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Although the sector still manages more than $100 billion in assets, recent outflows reflect declining short-term confidence. Consequently, Bitcoin may remain in consolidation until stronger institutional demand returns.
Technical Bitcoin Price Forecast
Key levels remain clearly defined as Bitcoin trades within a short-term corrective structure after rejection near the $82,800 resistance zone.
Upside levels: $76,033 and $76,800 remain the first resistance barriers. A sustained breakout above these levels could open the way toward $77,800 and the main $81,400 resistance zone near the 200-day EMA.
Downside levels: $75,000 continues to act as the main support, followed by $73,933 and $71,832 if bearish momentum accelerates.
Resistance ceiling: $81,400 remains a critical medium-term breakout level. Bulls must reclaim this zone to restore stronger upside momentum and invalidate the current consolidation structure.
The broader technical picture suggests that Bitcoin remains in a cooling consolidation phase after a sharp rejection in the $82K region. Momentum indicators continue to soften, while Bollinger Band readings near oversold territory hint at possible short-term recovery attempts. Meanwhile, stabilization of open interest around the $56 billion level shows that traders are cautiously rebuilding positions despite recent volatility.
Will Bitcoin’s Price Rise?
The Bitcoin price forecast for the coming weeks largely depends on whether buyers can defend the $75,000 support cluster while also reclaiming the short-term moving averages. If $BTC regains strength above $76,800, bullish momentum could accelerate toward $77,800 and eventually retest the $81,400 resistance ceiling.
In addition, the dominance of exchange outflows still supports the long-term accumulation narrative, as many investors continue to move $BTC into cold storage. Nevertheless, weakening institutional sentiment remains a near-term problem after BlackRock’s IBIT recorded eight consecutive days of outflows.
If broader market confidence improves alongside rising open interest, Bitcoin could quickly regain momentum. However, failure to hold $75,000 could expose $BTC to deeper downside targets near $73,933 and $71,832.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a key technical zone where both macro sentiment and institutional flows are likely to determine the next major direction.
See also: "XRP Price Forecast: Bears Trap XRP Price Inside a Symmetrical Triangle"
