Bitcoin price forecast: BTC targets breakout as ETF inflows return and oil fears ease

• Bitcoin is trading at $70,776, up 3.43%, breaking above the SAR level of $69,456 within an ascending channel on the 30-minute chart.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded daily net inflows of $167.03 million on March 9, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $109.31 million.
• Oil prices fell from $120 to $93 per barrel after Donald Trump signaled that the conflict with Iran may soon end, boosting risk appetite across markets.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $70,776, up 3.43%, as easing geopolitical tensions give buyers enough room to push prices above $70,000.
The macro backdrop shifted significantly overnight.

Oil prices, which had surged close to $120 per barrel due to fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East, dropped sharply to around $93 after President Trump stated that the conflict with Iran may soon end.

For Bitcoin, which moved closely with broader risk assets during the decline, relief in energy markets removes one of the key headwinds that pressured prices earlier in March.

30-minute chart: ascending channel breaks above key SAR level

30-minute BTC price action (Source: TradingView)

The 30-minute chart shows Bitcoin forming a clean ascending channel from the March 9 lows near $65,800, with price breaking above the parabolic SAR at $69,456 and key horizontal resistance at $69,500, which capped several attempts last week.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.11, remaining in positive territory and confirming that buying pressure supports the move, rather than low-volume drift.

Price is currently moving toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel around $72,000–$73,000.

A clean breakout above this zone with CMF remaining above zero would open the path to the 50-day EMA on the daily chart — the next major resistance at $73,165.

Key levels:

• SAR support: $69,456
• Lower channel boundary: ~$68,500 (rising)
• Immediate resistance: $71,000
• Upper channel boundary: ~$72,000–$73,000
• 50-day EMA target: $73,165

Daily chart: bull market support band remains the long-term battleground

Daily BTC price action (Source: TradingView)

The daily chart puts the recovery into perspective.

Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 and has since lost more than 40% of its value, with price compressing in the $60,000–$65,000 demand zone over the past several weeks.

The bull market support band lies at $84,738–$86,705, far above the current price. Reclaiming this range would be the first real signal of a long-term trend shift.

A more immediate task is clearing the 20-day EMA at $68,721, which price has already moved above intraday.

A daily close above this level, followed by a test of the 50-day EMA at $73,165, would mark Bitcoin’s most significant technical progress since the November breakout.

ETF inflows return as BlackRock leads

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $167.03 million on March 9, breaking a streak of major outflows:

• $348.83 million — March 6

• $227.83 million — March 5

BlackRock’s IBIT led with $109.31 million in a single day, confirming that institutional demand is returning at current price levels, rather than waiting for further downside.

Total net inflows across all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now stand at $55.54 billion, with $88.34 billion in total net assets, representing 6.41% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.

The return of positive daily flows after a week of heavy outflows marks a meaningful shift in institutional sentiment that price charts alone cannot capture.

Outlook: will Bitcoin rise?

Bullish case

• BTC holds above SAR $69,456
• breaks the channel top at $72,000–$73,000
• daily close above the 50-day EMA at $73,165

Continued ETF inflows and further de-escalation of the Iran conflict could push the price toward $80,000–$84,000.

Bearish case

A rejection around $71,000–$72,000 could send price back below SAR $69,456, retesting the $65,000–$60,000 demand zone.

Renewed escalation in the Iran conflict, pushing oil back toward $120, would restore the macro pressure that weighed on risk assets throughout this correction.