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Bitcoin price has not yet reached peak levels within the current cycle
Analysts have drawn attention to the Long-Term Holder Realized Profit & Loss metric, which makes it possible to assess the stages of Bitcoin’s (BTC) market cycle. This indicator records the volumes of realized profits and losses among long-term holders and has previously helped identify cycle tops and bottoms. In the current phase, the data remain moderate and do not point to overheating.
Spikes in realized profits have traditionally been observed at the peaks of bull markets. This was the case in 2017, when long-term holders massively sold their digital coins at the height of the rally. A similar situation occurred in 2021, but sales were more evenly distributed, which reduced pressure on the market.
During bear cycles, the metric showed the opposite signals. In 2018–2019, sales dropped sharply and the market recorded minimal losses, indicating the end of the downturn. A similar picture was seen in 2022–2023, when Bitcoin’s price declined to the $15,000–$20,000 range and losses were recorded amid panic.
Now, in 2024–2025, the situation looks different. Realized profit exists, but it is moderate and not comparable to previous cycles. The BTC price is close to its historical highs, yet no significant selling pressure from long-term holders is visible. This suggests that the market has likely not yet entered the final phase of euphoria.
Analysts note that further acceleration of sales from long-term investors will become a key signal of the cycle’s peak approaching. Historically, sharp green spikes on the LTH Profit & Loss chart coincided with the end of bull phases. For now, such signals have not been observed, although increased activity among these holders is already noticeable.
Therefore, the Bitcoin market is in a fairly late stage of the bull cycle, but there is still room before reaching the full peak. Moderate profit-taking indicates a controlled situation, but investors should remain cautious.
See also: "XRP Breaks Out of “Bull Flag” Pattern, Targets $11"
