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Bitcoin Risks a 20–30% Drop After $1.1 Billion in Liquidations
Bitcoin’s price has fallen to the lower end of its local trading range amid $1.1 billion in market liquidations within 24 hours. The leading digital currency dropped close to $106,000, marking a new weekly low on October 30.
Macroeconomic Background
The crypto market followed U.S. stock indexes lower after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%. The week’s potential macro catalyst — a U.S.–China trade agreement to prevent new tariffs from taking effect on November 1 — remains uncertain despite upbeat comments from U.S. President Donald Trump.
After meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the two sides had “agreed on many issues.”
“I had a truly great meeting with President Xi of China. There is tremendous respect between our two countries, and it will only grow stronger after what has happened,” he posted. “We have agreed on many issues, and others — even very important ones — are very close to resolution.”
Market Reaction and Bitcoin Outlook
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite opened lower, while gold climbed back above $4,000 per ounce. Data from CoinGlass show that crypto market liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion in a single day — evidence that traders’ macroeconomic bets failed to pay off.
Market participants hold differing views on what comes next. Some, including trader CrypNuevo, see Bitcoin’s behavior as a “typical” reaction to the Fed’s rate decisions.
“There’s no cause for concern regarding market structure or trend — the price is simply rebalancing tonight’s new inefficiencies,” he wrote on X.
CrypNuevo noted that Bitcoin has now closed its latest weekend gap on the CME futures market.
Others were far less optimistic. Trader Roman warned that since BTC/USD has failed to follow stocks during their rally, a reversal in equities could trigger another sharp drop.
“When the S&P 500 finally experiences some pullback or correction, I expect Bitcoin to drop significantly — perhaps by 20–30%,” Roman wrote on X.
He added that Bitcoin has been moving sideways, while equities have risen more than 40%.
“The lack of strength is obvious. It’s coming,” he warned.
CoinGlass confirmed that October has turned “red” for Bitcoin for the first time since 2018, with just one trading day left to change the outcome. The average October gain since 2013 has been 20%.
The current situation underscores how macroeconomic factors continue to exert a strong influence on cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin’s reaction to the Fed’s decision and uncertainty over U.S.–China trade talks highlight the sensitivity of digital assets to global economic developments.
See also: "Binance Retail Traders Sell $1B in BTC, Increasing Market Pressure"
