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Cardano Price Forecast: ADA rose by 7% after a Fibonacci breakout at $0.277 amid easing around the Strait of Hormuz
- Cardano is trading at $0.2897, up 7%, breaking above the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $0.2773, while the RSI reaches 75.43 on the 4-hour chart.
- Open interest increased by 16.62% to $504.22 million, and volume rose by 88.26% to $852.48 million, while short positions worth $976.37K were liquidated during the past 24 hours.
- Two tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the beginning of the war on Sunday, triggering a broad rotation into altcoins with higher risk.
Cardano is trading at $0.2897, which is 7% higher, breaking above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $0.2773 as risk appetite returns to cryptocurrency markets. This move is part of a broader altcoin surge caused by the first signs of de-escalation around Hormuz, with ADA leading in derivatives volume and showing its strongest four-hour candle since February.
4-hour price action of ADA (Source: TradingView)
ADA surpassed the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $0.2773 and all four EMAs in a single move, with:
- 20-day EMA at $0.2679
- 50-day EMA at $0.2655
- 100-day EMA at $0.2671
- 200-day EMA at $0.2764
For the first time since January, these averages have moved below the price. The next Fibonacci resistance lies at 0.5 at $0.2948, and the target is 0.618 at $0.3123 if momentum continues.
The RSI at 75.43 is in the overbought zone, significantly above the signal line at 53.07. This value usually indicates a short-term pullback risk, but an overbought RSI during a real breakout often remains elevated longer than expected.
The level to watch on any pullback is $0.2773, the broken Fibonacci level, which now becomes support.
Key levels
0.382 Fibonacci — $0.2773
0.5 Fibonacci resistance — $0.2948
0.618 Fibonacci resistance — $0.3123
0.786 Fibonacci resistance — $0.3372
Derivatives: shorts are disappearing
Open interest increased by 16.62% to $504.22 million, while volume nearly doubled, rising 88.26% to $852.48 million.
Such a combination of rising open interest and a price breakout is the clearest confirmation that new long positions are entering the market, rather than existing holders taking profit.
The long-to-short ratio on Binance is:
- 1.5753 for accounts
- 1.7144 for top trading accounts
Positions of top traders at 0.9776 show that institutional-sized positioning remains almost unchanged, despite the bullish rise among retail traders.
Liquidation data makes the squeeze visible.
During the past 24 hours:
- shorts — $976.37K
- longs — $130.85K
Bears who positioned against ADA at the EMA resistance cluster are systematically being flushed out, and a push toward $0.2948 will trigger another wave of short covering.
Partial easing in the Strait of Hormuz changes sentiment, not reality
The macro catalyst behind today’s cryptocurrency movement is real but narrower than the headlines suggest.
Iran selectively allowed certain vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, including:
- two gas carriers under the Indian flag
- a Turkish vessel
after declaring the waterway closed only to ships from the United States, Israel and their Western allies.
Before the war began on February 28, around 100 vessels per day safely crossed the strait. That number has now fallen to one or two per day.
Iran’s new supreme leader publicly pledged to keep the strait closed as a pressure tool, drone strikes hit the alternative Omani ports of Duqm and Salalah, and large-scale commercial reopening has not yet been announced or agreed.
Outlook: will the price of Cardano rise?
Bullish case:
ADA holds $0.2773 as support, breaks $0.2948, and targets $0.3123.
Bearish case:
RSI signals a reversal, pushing the price below $0.2773, exposing $0.236, and potentially the range low of $0.2206.
See also: "Bitcoin rises above its 50-day moving average for the first time in nearly two months"
