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Cardano Price Prediction: Secret Bottom Signal That Marked 2019 and 2022 Has Just Flashed as ADA Hits Historic Lows
Cardano is trading at $0.169 on June 8, slightly rebounding from lows of $0.1500, which marked the most oversold weekly RSI reading in $ADA’s history. At the same time, data on $BTC supply in loss and derivatives positioning suggest that the broader crypto market may have printed a cyclical bottom.
$ADA Daily Chart: Supertrend Is Bearish, but MACD Is Starting to Turn
$ADA/USD daily price action. Source: TradingView.
The daily chart remains structurally bearish. The Supertrend sits at $0.1977, well above the current price, and every previous recovery attempt since November 2025 has been rejected at a lower high along the descending resistance line. The price collapsed from $0.2451 to $0.1500 in less than a week — the sharpest one-leg decline in $ADA’s 2026 history.
MACD is showing the first signs of a turn. The MACD line at -0.0075 is above the signal line at -0.0160, while the histogram at -0.0160 is narrowing towards zero. This is not yet a bullish rally, but it is the first sign that downside momentum is slowing after the crash. The dotted horizontal support near $0.1500 is the only structural reference below the current price. A reclaim of $0.1977 on a daily close would be the first signal that the Supertrend is being challenged.
Key $ADA Levels for June 9:
Resistance: $0.1977 — Supertrend; $0.2200 — previous structure; $0.2451 — breakdown level.
Support: $0.1599 — session low; $0.1500 — crash low; no previous structure below.
$ADA Is the Most Oversold in History, and a Hidden Bottom May Have Formed
LuckSide Crypto noted that $ADA reached its most oversold reading on both the daily and weekly charts in its entire history — even more extreme than the December 2018 lows. The analyst pointed to very similar signals developing simultaneously on $BTC, including RSI in the oversold zone, stochastic RSI bottoming and beginning a bullish crossover, and the start of a MACD turn.
The more significant observation was total Bitcoin supply in loss. When $BTC reaches roughly 10.5 million coins held at a loss, that level has historically marked cycle bottoms — January 2019, the COVID low and the November 2022 bottom near $15K. The same level was reached again in June 2026. LuckSide also noted the development of a reversal in $BTC exchange supply, with coins appearing to leave exchanges — a pattern that preceded major rallies in previous cycles.
The analyst did not call a confirmed bottom, pointing to upcoming PPI and CPI reports in the middle of the week and the need for the weekly close to hold above key levels. Whether $ADA confirms the rebound or retests $0.1500 will largely depend on how Bitcoin handles these macro events.
Derivatives: Smart Money Is Positioning Long
$ADA derivatives analysis. Source: Coinglass.
The overall long-to-short ratio for $ADA is 0.7416, indicating a modest skew towards short positions among retail accounts. Binance accounts show a different picture at 2.1017, while top traders stand at 2.5286, meaning institutional and professional accounts are heavily long at current prices. $ADA reclaimed 15th place in the global rankings with a market capitalisation of $5.86 billion after briefly giving way to Monero, recording a 1.02% gain over the past 24 hours and $500 million in weekend trading volume.
Open interest fell 5.01% to $348.44 million, indicating position reduction rather than a new verdict. Long liquidations reached $939.21K versus $756.59K for short positions over 24 hours, a nearly balanced reading that suggests the forced-selling phase is losing momentum. Options volume fell 92.94%, reflecting a sharp drop in speculative activity and aligning with the accumulation-phase signals described by LuckSide.
$ADA Price Forecast for June 9
Downside: a daily close below $0.1599 would retest the $0.1500 crash low. Losing that level on a close would remove the only visible support and open price discovery below five-year lows.
Upside: holding above $0.1599 and reclaiming $0.1977 on a daily close would challenge the Supertrend and open a move towards $0.2200 and the $0.2451 breakdown level — the minimum recovery needed to begin repairing the weekly chart structure.
See also: "Bitcoin Holds Above the $59.1K Low as Short-Term Charts Signal an Oversold Rebound Formation"
