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Traders Expect Bitcoin to Crash Below $65,000
Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since Donald Trump’s inauguration, losing 40% of its value from the all-time high reached in October 2025. Participants in prediction markets believe that the bottom has not yet been reached, Bloomberg reports.
On the popular decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, trader sentiment has deteriorated sharply. The probability that bitcoin’s price will fall to $65,000 this year is estimated at 82%. Hopes for a return to the $100,000 level have dropped from 80% at the beginning of the year to 54%. The probability of a decline below $70,000 by March 1 is estimated at 72%.
Experts highlight several key factors that have undermined hopes for “digital gold”:
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Collapse of the “safe haven” narrative. Bitcoin failed to act as a protective asset during a period of geopolitical instability.
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ETF outflows. Support from exchange-traded funds has dried up. Nearly $4 billion has been withdrawn from U.S. crypto ETFs over the past three months. According to Citi, inflows of new money into the market have stalled.
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Aftermath of the October crash. Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital notes that the market crash on October 10 wiped out more capital than the 2022 collapse. Investors suffered heavy losses and are reluctant to return.
The “wisdom of the crowd” on prediction markets contrasts with the assessments of major banks. Analysts at Standard Chartered and Bernstein, despite lowering their forecasts, still expect bitcoin to rally to $150,000 by the end of the year. However, traders voting with their money no longer believe in such a scenario.
