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XRP Price Forecast: June Begins Below the Macro Trendline, and History Suggests the Month Will Be Unfavourable
$XRP is trading at $1.1736 on 4 June, entering the macro support zone that EGRAG Crypto calls the most important structural decision point of the current cycle, as June is opening below both the 50 EMA and the white macro trendline for the first time in many years.
$XRP Daily Chart: Descending Channel Narrows as Both SAR and Supertrend Apply Pressure From Above
Daily $XRP/USD price action. Source: TradingView.
The daily chart shows lower highs inside a clear descending channel from the August 2025 peak near $3.60. All recovery attempts from the February 2026 low near $1.10 were rejected at a lower high, confirming that the downtrend remains intact. The Supertrend is holding at $1.3401, while the SAR is at $1.3539; both are overhead and both point bearish on the daily timeframe.
The pink demand zone visible between $1.10 and $1.20 has provided support twice since February. Price is now entering this zone for the third time. Third tests of the same support zone historically either produce a strong rebound or break decisively. The lower trendline of the descending channel sits near $1.10–$1.15, making this range the last meaningful low before open air below $1.00. Above the current price, the Supertrend at $1.3401 is the first level that must flip before a recovery becomes real.
Key $XRP Levels for 5 June
Resistance: $1.3401 — Supertrend, $1.3539 — SAR, $1.50 — channel midline.
Support: $1.15 — lower channel trendline, $1.10 — demand zone low, $0.90 — EGRAG macro support.
What EGRAG’s June Analysis Actually Says
#$XRP — June Open Below the 50 EMA & Breaking⚠️:
This is where things get very interesting.
🏳️Historically, when #$XRP opens the month BELOW the 50 EMA during macro compression phases:
➡️ sentiment turns extremely bearish,
➡️ traders expect continuation lower,
➡️ but structure… pic.twitter.com/GOYfFGROWZ— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) June 1, 2026
EGRAG Crypto published a detailed macro analysis, noting that $XRP opened June below the 50 EMA and the white macro trendline at the same time. Historically, this has preceded some of the most bearish monthly closes in $XRP history. The data is direct: June 2014 — -17%, June 2018 — -39%, June 2022 — -32%. June 2026 is opening in the same structural position in an intermediate year.
The analyst identifies the month’s key battlefield between $0.90 and $1.30. Below $1.30, sentiment deteriorates sharply, and further downside becomes the path of least resistance. Above $1.30, reclaiming the 50 EMA and the macro trendline would flip the system into what EGRAG calls one of the biggest bear traps of the cycle. Until $XRP breaks out of the yellow falling wedge, the structure leans bearish.
$XRP ETF Flows: First Significant Outflow Since April Comes at the Wrong Time
Spot $XRP ETFs recorded net outflows of $5.34 million on 3 June — the first significant daily outflow since the $5.83 million outflow recorded in late April. Bitwise led with $4.06 million in outflows, followed by 21Shares with $589.37K and Grayscale with $699.42K. Total net assets fell to $1.03 billion. Cumulative net inflows remain at $1.42 billion, but the direction of daily flows shifted from steady green to red precisely as the price tests the macro support zone.
Four out of five products recorded outflows on the same day, reflecting broad institutional repositioning rather than a redemption event in a single product. When ETF outflows occur during technical weakness, the two pressures accumulate rather than offset each other.
$XRP Futures: Positions Are Closing and Longs Are Taking Losses
$XRP derivatives analysis. Source: Coinglass.
Trading volume declined by 8.04% to $3.70 billion, while open interest fell by 8.70% to $2.48 billion. A simultaneous decline in both metrics during falling prices means positions are being closed into weakness rather than new shorts being opened. Long positions absorbed $23.30 million in 24-hour liquidations versus only $755.63K for shorts — a 30-to-1 ratio that reflects heavy retail positioning against a trend that has given them little reason to keep holding.
The retail long-to-short ratio on Binance stands at 2.6496, meaning retail remains significantly net long despite the losses. Top traders score 3.0733 by accounts but only 1.6527 by positions, suggesting that professionals are keeping a long-term outlook but sizing conservatively in a bearish month.
$XRP Price Forecast for 5 June
Upside: a daily close above $1.30 reclaims the key battlefield level identified by EGRAG and shifts the setup towards a potential bear trap, with the Supertrend at $1.3401 and SAR at $1.3539 becoming the next targets in any recovery.
Downside: losing the $1.15 demand zone on a daily close opens the lower channel trendline near $1.10–$1.12, while EGRAG’s $0.90 macro support becomes the broader June target if the falling wedge breaks down.
See also: "Ethereum Price Prediction: Can ETH Defend $1,815 While Bears Maintain Market Control?"
