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A Negative May Points to the Risk of a 10% Decline in June
Bitcoin’s ($BTC) loss of gains since the start of the month may signal the arrival of seasonal weakness at the beginning of summer, reflected in the saying “sell in May and go away.”
Daily $BTC/USD chart. Source: TradingView.
Historically, a negative close in May has led to an average decline of 10.1% in June. These figures are based on observations from 2013, 2015, 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2023.
The average three-month return was also negative, at around -3.3%.
Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass.
In other words, the leading cryptocurrency generally does not show a significant summer recovery after a pullback in the final month of spring. This supports the idea that a “red May” may serve as a signal of short-term capitulation.
Based on the price at the time of writing, around $75,850, continued seasonality would imply a decline to $68,200 by June and a recovery to around $73,350 by August.
Such expectations are unlikely to become a trigger for long-term investors to exit their positions. The data points more to short-term weakness than to a sustained downtrend.
May Across Different Market Phases
In 2018 and 2022, May losses did not mark the bottom: the leading cryptocurrency fell by an average of 26% after one month, 21.6% after three months, and roughly 46% after six months.
At those times, signs of a bear-market cycle were visible: the asset traded below key support and formed lower highs and lower lows.
Monthly $BTC/USD chart. Source: TradingView.
In periods between cycles, a negative May close reflected short-term weakness rather than deeper capitulation.
2026 does not provide grounds to classify it as a bear market.
Monthly $BTC/USD chart. Source: TradingView.
The coin is still trading near $75,000, above cycle support close to $60,000. A consolidation below this zone would rule out optimistic interpretations.
A close below $70,000–$72,000 would embolden bears, while a deeper pullback into the $60,000–$65,000 area would force a reassessment of the correction’s status.
See also: "Analysts Call HYPE ETF the Strongest Debut Among Spot Crypto Funds"
