Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC ETFs Lose $1 Billion in Two Days as Analysts Warn the Bear Market May Not Be Over

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Bitcoin is trading at $76,818 on May 20 after falling below $77,000, as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1 billion in outflows across just two trading sessions.

At the same time, stablecoin dominance continues to maintain a breakout structure, while analysts remain sharply divided on whether the market is entering a major accumulation phase or whether the broader bear market is still ongoing.

Bitcoin Daily Chart: Price Falls Below the 0.618 Fibonacci Level

Daily Bitcoin price action. Source: TradingView.

The daily chart shows Bitcoin breaking below the ascending channel that guided the recovery from April lows.

Following the breakdown, $BTC lost two key Fibonacci levels:

• 0.618 — $79,249;
• 0.705 — $81,958.

Both levels are now acting as overhead resistance.

The nearest support sits at the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $75,574.

Below current prices, three major FVG zones remain clustered between $68,000 and $72,000.

CMF Remains Nearly Neutral

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator currently stands at 0.03 — barely positive after spending most of the previous two weeks in negative territory.

This suggests that the market is not yet showing strong accumulation or aggressive distribution.

Analysts believe the first constructive signal would require:

• holding the $75,574 level;
• sustained CMF movement back into positive territory.

After the ascending-channel breakdown, Bitcoin is effectively trading in open space between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels without a clearly defined directional structure.

Key Bitcoin Levels for May 21

• Resistance:
  • $79,249 (0.618 Fibonacci);
  • $81,958 (0.705 Fibonacci);
  • $84,481 (0.786 Fibonacci).
• Support:
  • $75,574 (0.5 Fibonacci);
  • $71,898 (0.382 Fibonacci);
  • FVG zone between $68,000–$72,000.
• CMF:
  • 0.03 — nearly neutral.

Bitcoin MVRV Falls Below Its 180-Day SMA

Analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio recently fell below its 180-day SMA.

Historically, this has often marked long-term accumulation zones.

When MVRV trades below that level, Bitcoin is effectively valued at a discount relative to its realised value.

Previous market cycles showed that such conditions typically preceded major accumulation phases rather than additional collapses.

However, for this bullish interpretation to hold, the market still needs:

• ETF outflows to stabilise;
• Bitcoin to hold above $75,574 on daily closes.

Bitcoin ETFs Lost $1 Billion in Just Two Days

On May 19, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $331.05 million in outflows.

On May 18, another $648.64 million exited the market.

The previous week ending May 15 saw an additional $979.69 million withdrawn.

That means Bitcoin ETFs have now experienced two consecutive weeks with approximately $1 billion in outflows each.

Major fund flows included:

• BlackRock IBIT: -$325.58 million;
• Fidelity’s FBTC: +$1.67 million;
• Valkyrie’s BRRR: +$3.79 million.

Despite recent selling pressure, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs still total $57.36 billion.

However, total net assets have fallen to $100.29 billion after previously exceeding $109 billion earlier this month.

Analysts increasingly view this as systematic institutional de-risking rather than short-term market noise.

Why Benjamin Cowen Still Believes This Is a Bear Market

Analyst Benjamin Cowen continues to view the current market as bearish.

He tracks the dominance of $USDT and $USDC as indicators of market risk appetite.

When stablecoin dominance rises, it suggests that capital is remaining in stablecoins rather than rotating into crypto assets.

Cowen argues that the current structure closely resembles the 2018 market cycle:

1. breakout above a long-term base;
2. pullback;
3. recovery;
4. second pullback toward the 21-week EMA.

According to him, the market is currently in the fourth stage.

He also pointed to Bitcoin’s rejection at the 200-day moving average — a pattern that similarly appeared in both 2018 and 2022 before additional downside followed.

Bitcoin Forecast for May 20–21

Bullish Scenario

Historically, MVRV below the 180-day SMA has often marked accumulation zones.

If:

• ETF outflows begin slowing;
• Bitcoin holds the $75,574 level;

the market could begin forming a new recovery base.

The first bullish signal would likely be a decline in weekly ETF outflows.

Bearish Scenario

Cowen’s bearish analogy suggests another move lower that could potentially fall below February’s lows near $60,000.

Factors supporting this scenario include:

• ongoing ETF outflows near $1 billion per week;
• the 200-day moving average acting as confirmed resistance.

If Bitcoin closes below $75,574 on a daily timeframe, price could quickly move toward the $70,000–$72,000 FVG zone.

See also: "Ethereum Price Forecast: 60 Whales Exit the Network as ETH Sentiment Hits 2023 Bear Market Lows"

#Forecast #Bitcoin (BTC) #Bearish Trading

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