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Bitcoin Continues to Suffer Significant Losses: What Is the Current Situation and What Comes Next?
According to the latest data published by Glassnode, the short-term outlook for the Bitcoin market continues to deteriorate. The company stated that Bitcoin is trading around $71,300 and that downside risks remain elevated due to increasing selling pressure in the spot market and accelerating ETF outflows. The analysis also notes that while the market structure remains stable, short-term momentum is currently bearish.
As previously reported, Strategy announced today that it had conducted a symbolic Bitcoin sale.
At the same time, blockchain data indicates that network activity remains strong. Transfer volume increased by 31% over the past week to $4.6 billion, while transaction fee revenue rose by 17%.
However, Glassnode emphasized that this activity was driven by the movement of existing capital rather than the inflow of new capital. A 57% decline in monthly market capitalization growth, bringing it close to zero, points to a significant slowdown in fresh money entering the market. It was also noted that the number of active addresses remained relatively stable at around 607,000.
Selling Pressure Continues to Intensify
Glassnode highlighted that selling pressure has increased substantially in spot markets. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicator dropped sharply from a positive $16 million to a negative $6.9 million, representing a 143% reversal.
This suggests that buyers have stepped aside and that price discovery has shifted into the hands of sellers. Although overall trading volume increased by 8%, the report notes that the growth was driven primarily by sell-side activity rather than buying demand.
Derivatives Traders Are Becoming More Cautious
Investors in the derivatives market appear to be increasingly cautious. While futures open interest remained unchanged at $36.7 billion, the 26% increase in the cost of maintaining long positions indicates that bulls are paying a higher premium to sustain their bullish expectations.
Meanwhile, the CVD indicator for perpetual futures continued to move deeper into negative territory.
The total open interest in options markets declined by $2.3 billion. At the same time, the drop in delta skew from roughly 15% to 12% suggests a modest reduction in downside hedging demand. Nevertheless, the elevated volatility spread of 24% indicates that investors still expect significant price fluctuations ahead.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Accelerate
According to Glassnode, the most striking metric of the week was the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Net ETF outflows nearly doubled to $1.3 billion, while trading volume surged 78% to $10.9 billion. The analysis showed that institutional investors were not only reducing their exposure but were doing so rapidly and on a large scale.
The MVRV ratio, a profitability metric for ETF investors, currently stands at 1.25, indicating that the average ETF investor has only a limited unrealized profit margin remaining.
Investor Profitability Continues to Deteriorate
Profitability metrics also confirm increasing market pressure. The percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit declined from 61.5% to 59.8%, while the realized profit/loss ratio fell to -0.9, indicating that loss-taking transactions now exceed profit-taking transactions on-chain.
The increase in net unrealized losses to 4.1% further suggests that a substantial portion of recently acquired Bitcoin is currently being held at a loss.
What Comes Next?
In its assessment, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin is currently in a distribution and consolidation phase. While on-chain activity remains structurally healthy, the inflow of new capital has stalled, spot-market selling pressure is intensifying, and institutional investors continue to reduce exposure through ETF withdrawals.
According to the firm, until market capitalization growth accelerates again and spot-market CVD returns to positive territory, the most likely scenario for Bitcoin remains either sideways consolidation or further downside price action.
See also: "Bitcoin Falls Below $71,000 as U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse"
