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Bitcoin is stronger than gold amid ETF outflows
Bitcoin is proving more resilient than traditional safe-haven assets, as gold and silver face pressure from fund outflows, position reductions, and deteriorating liquidity, according to Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan.
“The deterioration in liquidity conditions in the gold market has led to its market coverage now being lower than Bitcoin’s,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Wednesday report.
Bitcoin has shown relative resilience in recent weeks following the start of the war in Iran, even after a sharp decline from its October all-time highs.
Initially, the cryptocurrency dropped sharply alongside other risk assets, briefly falling below the $60,000 level and triggering widespread forced liquidations as investors sought to reduce risk amid geopolitical uncertainty.
However, the sell-off was short-lived. Prices have since stabilized in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, even as tensions persist and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel.
Price dynamics suggest that Bitcoin behaves less like a pure safe-haven asset in the initial shock phase and more like a macro asset with high beta volatility: it first declines, then finds support as capital flows return and long-term holders step in after panic subsides.
Gold has fallen by about 15% since the start of the month, retreating from a rally that pushed prices to record levels near $5,500 in January. Silver, which peaked near $120, followed a similar downward path. JPMorgan analysts attribute the sell-off to rising interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, and profit-taking by both retail and institutional investors.
Flow data confirms this shift. In the first three weeks of March, nearly $11 billion flowed out of gold ETFs, while inflows into silver ETFs accumulated since last summer were reduced, the report said. In contrast, Bitcoin-focused funds continued to attract net inflows over the same period.
Positioning data tells a similar story. JPMorgan’s institutional activity indicator, based on open interest in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures, shows a sharp increase in gold and silver allocations in late 2025 and early 2026, followed by a sharp decline since January as investors reduced positions. Bitcoin futures positions, by contrast, have remained relatively stable in recent weeks.
Momentum signals are also diverging. The bank noted that trend-following investors, such as commodity trading advisors (CTAs), have aggressively reduced gold and silver exposure, with indicators shifting from overbought levels to below neutral. This shift in positioning likely amplified the recent price declines. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s momentum is recovering from oversold levels toward neutral, suggesting potential easing of selling pressure.
Liquidity conditions further highlight this divergence. Gold’s market coverage has deteriorated to the point where it now lags behind Bitcoin—a reversal of the typical relationship. Silver’s liquidity has weakened even more, with reduced market depth amplifying recent price movements, the report said.
At the time of publication, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $69,000. Gold was priced at approximately $4,450 per ounce, and silver at $69 per ounce.
See also: "Bitcoin falls to $68K amid uncertainty over Iran"
