Crypto Market Losing Bullish Momentum: Troubling Signals from Options

Exchanges

The crypto market is showing concerning shifts in investor sentiment. According to data from analytics platform Amberdata, the 180-day implied volatility skew on the Deribit exchange has dropped to zero, signaling a shift in long-term expectations from bullish to neutral. This metric — which reflects the pricing difference between call and put options — was last at similar levels in early 2022, right before a prolonged bear market.

Key Shifts in Options Structure

Griffin Ardern, Head of Options Trading at BloFin, noted:

“The options market no longer believes in a sustained uptrend for Bitcoin. The likelihood of new highs in the coming months has dropped significantly.”

Particularly worrying developments include:

• Disappearance of call option premiums, indicating weakening bullish sentiment

• Increased demand for protective put options after BTC’s recent 4% decline

• Heavy use of covered call strategies, putting downward pressure on call prices

Macro Pressures Building

This comes against a backdrop of challenging macroeconomic conditions:

Inflation Risks:

• The core CPI continues to rise

• New tariffs from the Trump administration could drive inflation to 3.4% in H2 2025

• The Fed holds interest rates at 4.25%, limiting liquidity inflows

Real Economy Challenges:

• Supply chain disruptions are still affecting prices

• Retailers are passing rising costs onto consumers

• Expect a lagged, wave-like rise in prices over the next few months

Forecasts & Upcoming Events

JPMorgan analysts warn of increased inflation pressure in the near term. Key upcoming events include:

• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI — August 6

• July CPI data — August 8

• Producer Price Index (PPI) — August 9

Conclusion: Time for Caution

All signs point to the market entering a new phase:

• Loss of long-term bullish momentum

• Growing defensive positioning among institutional investors

• Macroeconomic uncertainty dampening risk appetite

Experts note that the current landscape resembles early 2022, when similar options behavior preceded a major correction. Investors are advised to reassess strategies and strengthen portfolio protection.

See also: "US to Allow Spot Crypto Trading on Futures Exchanges"

#Crypto Market #Bearish Trading

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