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Bitcoin Price Faces One of Its Toughest Tests Yet: What Comes Next?
The DeFi Report (TDR), a cryptocurrency analytics firm, stated in its latest analysis that Bitcoin’s current upward trend is facing its most serious test so far. The company’s founder, Michael Nadeau, analyzed recent market events and on-chain data, issuing important warnings regarding Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.
Although bullish sentiment dominates the market as Bitcoin approaches the $80,000 level, analysts at The DeFi Report remain cautious about the sustainability of this trend. The analysis notes that the current momentum is weakening and that the market is at a critical turning point.
Bitcoin closed the week above the average purchase price ($79,000) for short-term holders — investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days. While analysts believe this has historically signaled the end of a bear market, comparisons with the 2018 and 2022 cycles suggest that the current situation may still be “too early” for a sustainable bull market.
Analysts note that the 200-day moving average, currently positioned at $82,700, represents a very strong resistance level, and Bitcoin has not yet managed to maintain its position above it.
According to analysts, the $85,000 level is viewed by active investors as a realized price and therefore creates a significant supply barrier in the market.
On-chain data analysis shows that investors who held Bitcoin for 2 to 3 years (with cost bases ranging from $27,000 to $72,000) began taking profits as the price approached $80,000. This suggests that more experienced investors see the current rally as an opportunity to cash out gains.
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 3.8% and Producer Price Index (PPI) data at 6%, both higher than expected, are complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to lower interest rates. According to analysts, this situation may continue to put pressure on risk assets.
In addition, analysts note that June has historically been considered a weak month for Bitcoin. During bear market years, June has typically ended with an average decline of around 20%.
See also: "Nobody Wanted the Cheapest Bitcoin in 18 Months: Expert Explains Investor Psychology"
