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TradingShot analyst calculates Bitcoin’s “optimal point”
Despite Bitcoin (BTC) rebounding to the $70,000 level, an analyst from TradingShot suggested that the asset still has room to decline toward the so-called “optimal point.”
According to the analyst, the area below the 200-week moving average, around $56,000, could become a key accumulation zone for the leading cryptocurrency.
Historically, the 200-week moving average has marked major turning points during bear markets, and a decisive break below it could signal a deeper correction.
Bitcoin price analysis. Source: TradingView
Last week’s low also approached the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the previous bear market low to the latest high. Similar confluences between the weekly MA200 and the 0.382 level in the past have preceded extended bottom-formation phases.
This area now also aligns with the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level from the first phase of the 2022 bear cycle, reinforcing its technical significance. Based on this confluence, TradingShot identified the $51,000–$45,000 range as the “optimal point” of the bear cycle.
The upper boundary lies near the 2.0 extension level at around $51,000, while the lower boundary coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near $45,000. From a cyclical perspective, this range has historically represented a favorable zone for long-term investors.
At present, Bitcoin remains well below both its 50-day moving average ($84,961) and 200-day moving average ($100,963), signaling a clear bearish trend in both the medium and long term.
The wide gap between the current price and the 200-day moving average further underscores the strength of the overall downtrend.
See also: "CryptoQuant: The Bitcoin market has gone through one of the largest capitulation events"
