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Bitcoin in free fall: why a rebound may turn out to be a trap
Bitcoin has dropped nearly 20% since the beginning of February, marking its worst performance since June 2022 and recording a fifth consecutive month of decline. This is the longest bearish streak since 2018.
Earlier today, the price fell to around $62,810, reacting to Donald Trump’s plans to introduce global tariffs of 15%. The decline wiped more than $120 billion off the total crypto market capitalization in just one day. BTC has yet to show a clear rebound attempt and is trying to stabilize above the $63,000 level.
Pressure on prices is intensifying due to more than $200 million in outflows from spot ETFs and forced selling by miners, as mining becomes unprofitable at current price levels.
According to BTC/USD analysis conducted by WarrenAI, a chatbot from Investing.com, the technical picture on the daily chart fully confirms the fundamental negativity.
Trading around $63,100, the leading cryptocurrency remains confined within a steep downward channel. Trend indicators leave little room for optimism: the price is deeply below the Ichimoku Cloud, while the SuperTrend indicator acts as strong resistance at the distant $72,500 level. Moreover, the ADX index, which measures trend strength, has reached an extreme reading of 56.79, indicating total seller control and strong downward momentum.
Oversold conditions according to Bollinger Bands and RSI/MACD divergence hint at a possible rebound; however, under strong selling pressure, any rally risks becoming a classic “bull trap.”
Catching the bottom now is risky due to an unfavorable risk-reward ratio. A conservative strategy would involve waiting for a correction toward the $66,300–$68,600 resistance zone to open short positions targeting levels below $60,000. A global trend reversal could only be considered if the price consolidates above $68,000.
