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Bitcoin Overview for March 3 — What’s Driving BTC Today
- Bitcoin tested $70,000.
- Day range: $65,250–70,100.
- Main market drivers: escalation of the situation in the Middle East and prospects for further intensification/de-escalation; potential disruptions to energy supplies from the region and the impact on the Fed’s monetary policy.
- Key levels: support — $67,700–68,000, 65,800; resistance — $69,200.
What happened to Bitcoin’s price over the past 24 hours
On March 2, Bitcoin ($BTC) continued range trading within $63,000–70,000, reaching the upper boundary of the corridor after a rebound from the lower boundary began at the end of February.
On Tuesday morning, a pullback in quotes is observed, which during the Asian session is non-aggressive in nature. Quotes fell to $68,300.
Hourly chart of $BTC/USD. Source: TradingView.
The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme fear zone, gaining four points.
Source: Alternative.
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin short liquidations ($90.9 million) were twice as high as long liquidations ($45.9 million).
Source: Coinglass.
Main factors influencing Bitcoin’s price
Market participants continued to remain indifferent to events unfolding in the Middle East. The status quo did not change even after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the conflict was initially expected to end within four to five weeks, but those timeframes are now open-ended. The U.S. and Israel plan to intensify strikes on Iran in the near future. The probability of a ceasefire by the end of March, which was estimated at 78% over the weekend, fell to 44%, according to Polymarket.
The impact on the oil market remains moderately limited, which may be explained by interventions conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy. Oil prices are holding near $80 per barrel and are not reaching new highs despite warnings from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps about threats to all tankers carrying “black gold” passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The previous day, according to media reports, six ships were attacked.
The U.S., in turn, states that Iran does not control the waters. Nevertheless, traffic through the artery accounting for 20% of global hydrocarbon supplies has been suspended. A prolonged situation threatens to increase inflation expectations and could push the Federal Reserve to postpone key rate cuts to a later date, provided the current economic resilience persists.
At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin may have been supported by technical factors — the development of a rebound from the lower boundary of the $63,000–70,000 consolidation — and by Wall Street investors seeking to take advantage of low stock prices in hopes of a swift resolution of the conflict. At the same time, falling precious metal prices may indicate capital rotation into the digital asset sector. Psychological support was also provided by Strategy’s purchase of 3,015 $BTC, increasing its total position to 720,737 $BTC.
The situation in the Middle East remains ongoing, and the current dynamics may be technical in nature. No significant macroeconomic data is expected today.
ETF Flows
According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $458.2 million over the past day. Over the last five trading days, outflows were observed only once.
Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: SoSoValue.
Market Microstructure
According to CryptoQuant, the Coin Days Destroyed metric confirms the absence of pressure from long-term holders. Whales may act as sellers at the $70,000 resistance level, according to the Exchange Whale Ratio indicator.
The market is also monitoring support at $64,000 and a strong options barrier at $60,000. According to analysts, “the trigger for any structural reversal will inevitably depend on inflation relief and geopolitical stabilization.”
Source: CryptoQuant.
Key Levels and Scenarios
10x Research noted that the market needs to comprehensively assess the risk-reward ratio based on volumes, volatility, ETF flows, and technical indicators in order not to interpret a short-term rebound as a trend reversal.
Source: 10x Research.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed to $72,000 as a key level for further upward momentum. Holding the $68,000 mark will preserve the bulls’ current dominance.
Source: Daan Crypto Trades.
See also: "XRP Price Rally at Risk Due to Key $1.42 Resistance Level"
