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Bitcoin Whales Sold Off $2 Billion Worth of BTC: January Will Decide the Fate of the Bull Market
Bitcoin has been trading within the $84,200–$93,500 range for several consecutive weeks, unable to break above the upper boundary. On December 15, the price dropped to $85,129 on Binance, marking a 22.7% correction from the all-time high recorded in October.
1-day BTC/USD chart. Source: Binance
Large-Scale Selling or Normal Market Mechanics?
Web3 developer Tracer reported large-scale Bitcoin sales by key market participants. According to his data, Binance sold 4,173 BTC, Coinbase — 2,370 BTC, Wintermute — 1,526 BTC, and BitMEX — 7,516 BTC. Within minutes, Bitcoin worth over $2 billion entered the market.
The analyst described the situation as an “organized dump,” but such movements are often explained by standard market mechanics. Large holders and market makers constantly reassess their positions in response to changes in demand, liquidity, and technical signals.
Technical Signals Hint at a Possible Reversal
Trader Michaël van de Poppe pointed out a rare technical signal. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) against gold fell below 30, marking only the fourth occurrence in the cryptocurrency’s history. The previous three instances appeared at major price bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
1-week BTCUSD/GOLD chart. Analysis: Michaël van de Poppe
“One of the two assets is priced higher than it should be. I believe gold is overvalued relative to Bitcoin, and capital will soon start flowing the other way,” the analyst said.
He also noted a significant gap between the current price and the 20-week moving average.
Liquidity Is Rising, but Bitcoin Is Slow to Respond
Trader Daan Crypto Trades analyzed the relationship between Bitcoin and global liquidity. Despite rising liquidity, the cryptocurrency is showing a weak response to this factor.
1-day BTC/USD and Global Liquidity Index chart. Analysis: Daan Crypto Trades
The analyst attributes this behavior to four-year cycle-style selling and tax-loss harvesting at year-end. In his view, the first three months of next year will determine whether Bitcoin can break away from its traditional cyclicality or continue following old patterns.
Weekly Moving Averages Are Converging
Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted an important technical detail in the current price action. The 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages are converging below the price level, which could lead to a crossover in mid-January.
1-week BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Rekt Capital
Historically, such crossovers during bull markets have created recovery periods lasting several weeks before a broader decline resumed.
Bitcoin remains confined within its established range, indicating that the market is not yet ready to sustainably accept higher prices. Technical indicators suggest potential reversals, but the market’s definitive reaction will become clear in the first quarter of next year.
AI Perspective
Viewed through the lens of long-term institutional capital cycles, the current correction may reflect not so much Bitcoin’s weakness as a portfolio rebalancing by major players ahead of the new tax year. Historically, December has often been a month of technical selling for U.S. funds, creating artificial pressure across all risk assets.
From a machine data analysis standpoint, correlations with traditional liquidity indicators may be distorted due to structural changes in Bitcoin’s holder base. Over the past two years, the share of institutional investors has increased significantly, altering the familiar response patterns to macroeconomic signals. The market may be in a transitional phase of forming new pricing mechanisms, where legacy technical models require reassessment.
See also: "Number Magic Points to a Bitcoin Price Decline Starting December 14"
