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Ethereum Price Forecast: Bitmine Has 6 Weeks Left to Meet Its ETH Target and May Stop Purchases
Ethereum is trading at $2,281 on May 9, stuck inside an ascending wedge on the daily chart, as Bitmine's chairman Tom Lee signals that the company's historical series of $ETH purchases has slowed down in recent weeks, eliminating one of the most stable demand factors in the market.
Daily Ethereum Chart: Ascending Wedge Meets Stubborn Downtrend
Daily price movement of Ethereum (Source: TradingView)
The daily chart is at a crossroads. Since reaching the bottom around $1,800 in February, $ETH has continued to rise within an ascending wedge, but the long-term downtrend line from the October 2025 peak around $4,800 continues to pressure the price. The Supertrend indicator is at $2,138, currently below the price and technically bullish, but the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) at -0.13 tells a different story — capital is still flowing out, not in.
The price has tested the $2,300 ceiling multiple times in April and May but has not closed above it on a daily basis. The wedge is narrowing quickly, and a breakout in either direction is approaching. The CMF indicator suggests that sellers have the upper hand at current levels.
Key Levels for May 9:
- Resistance: Wedge ceiling $2,300, next structure $2,400, downtrend line $2,600
- Support: $2,138 (Supertrend), $2,000 psychological level, $1,800 February low
- CMF: -0.13, negative for most of 2026
ETH Derivatives: Long Positions Being Punished
ETH derivatives data (Source: Coinglass)
Volume dropped by 27.85% to $43.55 billion, while open interest decreased by 1.05% to $34.03 billion. This combination suggests position exits, rather than aggressive new positioning. On Binance, the long-to-short ratio between retail accounts is 2.6456, heavily skewed toward long positions, while positions from top traders are nearly at 1.0033.
This long-term skew in retail trading is a problem. Over the last 24 hours, $74.13 million in long positions were liquidated, compared to only $4.49 million in shorts. Sellers aren't pressuring the market — longs are. With retail stocks rising and neutral traders, the path of least resistance favors another shakeout before sustained growth.
Whale Distribution Is the Unspoken Overhang
Ethereum whales are doing something they haven't done in a year.
Since October 6, 2025, Ethereum whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 $ETH have undergone a significant regime change in their market behavior.
Before this shift, this cohort was in a steady accumulation regime. Their… https://t.co/5WAJSKsnl9 pic.twitter.com/qezrxfq6Re
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 7, 2026
Network analyst Ali Charts noted a significant shift in the behavior of the mid-tier whale class. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 $ETH had been in steady accumulation since April 2025, reaching a peak of 15.95 million $ETH by October 6. Since then, this group has reduced its holdings to around 12.52 million $ETH, a decrease of 21.5%, meaning over 3.4 million $ETH has been released to the market over seven months.
Such consistent distribution from wallets large enough to influence price is a serious obstacle. Absorbing this supply requires new institutional or retail demand, and neither is clearly reflected in the flow data at the moment.
Bitmine’s Slowdown Alters Ethereum Demand Picture
Bitmine buys about 100,000 $ETH per week and currently holds 4.29% of the total supply, valued at about $11.9 billion. At this rate, the company will reach its 5% target in about six weeks, after which Lee noted that purchases would slow down and focus on staking income and a $4 billion stock buyback program.
About 85% of Bitmine’s assets are already staked, generating more than $300 million annually. The company is not a forced seller, but the removal of 100,000 $ETH in weekly buying pressure is a structural shift in demand that the market will need to replace from other sources.
Ethereum Price Forecast: Up and Down on May 9
Up: A daily close above $2,300 with a positive CMF would be the first true bullish confirmation since the wedge started. The target would be $2,400, then $2,600, where the downtrend line is located. After completing accumulation and switching to staking, Bitmine may reconsider $ETH as a yield-generating asset and attract a different buyer base.
Down: A breakout of the wedge below $2,138. The Supertrend support opens a fast rise to $2,000. Sustained whale distribution without compensating demand and $74 million in daily long liquidations make this path more likely in the short term.
See also: "Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC Surges 30%, Targeting $600"
