Українська
Русский
English
Exchange inflows increase the risk of Solana price falling to $65
The price dynamics of Solana over the past month appear stable. The asset’s quotes declined by only 1.4% over thirty days. However, this consolidation only creates the appearance of market balance. A broader perspective reveals a completely different situation.
Since the beginning of the year, the asset has lost more than 30% of its value. Any recovery attempts consistently ended with the formation of lower highs. Therefore, the global trend remains firmly bearish.
Lack of fuel for growth
The weekly funding rate shows how market forces are distributed at a given moment. If the rate remains negative for a long period, it means sellers dominate the market and pay buyers to hold long positions.
From February 14, 2022 to February 20, 2023, Solana experienced a record-long series of negative weekly funding rates — about 53 consecutive weeks. During this period sellers applied increasing pressure — $SOL collapsed to a cycle low of $7 in December 2022. However, toward the end of this period, despite the funding rate remaining negative, the price quietly began to rise.
As a result, a powerful rally began (possibly fueled by massive short liquidations), which took Solana from $7 to $209 by March 2024 — nearly 2,500%. A second series of negative rates from March 20 to October 16, 2023 added fuel: skeptical sellers returned to the market and were likely squeezed again.
Coinbase funding rate chart: TradingView
Since late October 2025, a new stretch of negative funding rates has formed, lasting about 21 weeks so far. This resembles the middle of the 2022 phase when funding rates became increasingly negative as the price declined.
However, there is an important difference. Total open interest in dollar terms reached a peak of $7.58 billion around September 17, 2025, two weeks before Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. Currently, it stands near $1.9 billion — the lowest level since early March 2025.
Price and open interest: Santiment
This indicates that although funding rates remain negative, the actual volume of short positions behind them is small. The market simply lacks sufficient capital to trigger a short squeeze and sustain a rally. Each bounce quickly fades — the main fuel in the form of concentrated leverage is absent. The streak persists, but without the explosive momentum that once made previous moves so powerful.
The ascending channel may become a trap for traders
While the potential for a short squeeze remains weak, new bearish signals are emerging. At first glance, some of them may even appear optimistic.
On the daily chart, Solana’s price structure since early February forms an ascending channel. Without deeper analysis, such a pattern might seem bullish. But this channel formed after a sharp drop — from roughly $148 to $68. The consolidation has already lasted longer than the decline itself, meaning the pattern does not resemble a classic bear flag. Instead, it looks more like a standard corrective channel, hinting at a possible continuation of the downtrend.
Ascending channel on the daily $SOL chart: TradingView
In reality, this is a mature corrective channel forming within a prolonged downtrend. The decline of more than 30% since the beginning of the year confirms this picture. This is not accumulation, but rather a weak attempt to rise amid ongoing market weakness.
On-chain analytics supports this view. The net position change indicator on exchanges shows whether tokens are moving onto trading platforms or being withdrawn. In the case of $SOL, this indicator has remained in the green zone since February 10 — every day. On that date, 245,691 $SOL flowed into exchanges. By March 10, that amount had increased to 2,204,783 $SOL — nearly an 800% increase in a month.
Net position change of $SOL on exchanges: Glassnode
The continued inflow to exchanges indicates that $SOL holders are systematically sending coins to trading platforms, most likely to sell them. For a full market reversal, the indicator must turn negative and remain in the outflow zone for a sustained period. This would show that sellers have exhausted their supply and holders are withdrawing tokens for storage. Exhaustion of selling pressure would suggest a potential bottom, but the market has not yet provided that signal. So where might the bottom be?
Key Solana price levels – $65 may act as support before a rebound
A breakdown from the ascending channel points to a potential drop of more than 20% from the lower boundary of the trend. Support along the lower line lies around $82 — if price closes below this level on a daily candle, the path opens toward zones near $65.
Technical levels confirm this scenario. Currently $SOL is holding near the 0.618 Fibonacci level — about $85. The next potential support lies at 0.786 — around $82, followed by another at $79. Often the 1.618 extension level — roughly $70, slightly above the horizontal level of $67, becomes a target. A deeper target around $65 aligns with the projected movement inside the channel.
Solana price analysis: TradingView
For bullish recovery, $SOL must reclaim $94, which is the maximum swing level inside the channel and could invalidate the bearish scenario. However, a true upward reversal would require breaking through the $118 zone.
A series of positive funding rates during the 21st week suggests that once positioning finally shifts, the squeeze could be significant. However, declining open interest and continuous inflows of coins to exchanges confirm that conditions for a reversal have not yet formed. The market is likely to move lower first.
See also: "Ethereum Price Forecast: Can ETH Break Out of the $1,750–$2,100 Range?"
