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Solana's Technical Indicators Signal Potential Price Correction to $64
The asset price stands slightly above $84 as of April 1. The coin returned to levels seen in early March after a month of stagnation. Key indicators on the eight-hour chart are forming a structure resembling the situation before a 21% price increase early last month.
The realization of this scenario depends on a large block of supply just above the current price levels.
Signals from Large Investors
The eight-hour chart shows the formation of a "head and shoulders" pattern since late February, with the pattern's peak reaching $97.75. The right shoulder continues to develop, and the price is in the lower part of the structure. The Large Capital Movement Index (SMI) is approaching the signal line. A similar situation occurred from March 8 to 10, where the crossover led to a 21.59% price increase over six trading sessions.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) provides additional data for assessment. From February 28 to March 31, the chart recorded a higher price low, while the RSI showed a decline. Such hidden bullish divergence usually signals a recovery. The coin already bounced 6%, which naturally attracted new capital flows.
Solana Indicators: SMI and RSI: TradingView
A single bounce doesn’t guarantee the continuation of the trend. Repeating the March scenario requires confirmed SMI crossover above the signal line. Otherwise, the upward movement risks halting due to a strong barrier above.
Resistance Block before $88
The Glassnode heatmap of position distribution reveals three significant supply clusters in the range of $85.31 to $88.22. Here, investors previously acquired large volumes of the asset. Owners of these positions may begin to sell to break even, putting pressure on the price.
Heatmap of SOL cost distribution 1: Glassnode
The first cluster between $85.31 and $86.27 contains about 14.34 million coins. The second block from $86.27 to $87.24 includes approximately 12.76 million units of the cryptocurrency. The third level between $87.24 and $88.22 adds another 10.62 million coins. Together, 37.7 million tokens create a tight barrier with a $3 width just above the current price.
Cost cluster 2: Glassnode
Each dollar increase in this zone will face seller activity. Buyers need to absorb this supply for the bounce to continue. If the clusters hold, the local rise will stop before reaching the critical technical zone.
Risk of Market Decline
The chart clarifies the power balance at key levels. Closing the candle above $84.95 will lead to testing the first cost cluster. A breakthrough at $87.38 will confirm the retention of the second block without position liquidation.
The critical return level is at $89.82. A stable price above this point will mean passing through all three supply zones. A successful breakout will confirm the SMI signal and open the way to $97.75. A move past this threshold will completely cancel the bearish structure.
Solana price analysis: TradingView
The correction scenario assumes the asset fails to establish above $84.95 — indicating a sell-off as it approaches the next boundary. This weakness would open the path to $81.47 and then to $78.77. This level serves as the neckline of the "head and shoulders" pattern. A break below $78.77 will trigger a downward move of around 18.46%. In this case, the probable target will be $64.19. The $89.82 level is the dividing line between a return to the highs and a deep decline.
See also: "Dogecoin Price Forecast: Bollinger Band squeeze tightens as X Money launch approaches"
