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XRP Price Forecast: Can Bulls Defend $1.10 as Selling Pressure Intensifies?
$XRP continues to trade under pressure as weakening capital flows and declining derivatives activity reinforce a cautious market outlook. Although the token recently recovered from local lows, technical indicators suggest that buyers have not yet regained real control.
Market participants are now focused on several key resistance levels that could determine whether $XRP can extend its recovery or resume the broader decline. At the same time, open interest trends and spot market flows show a market that remains indecisive despite signs of stabilisation in speculative activity.
Technical Structure Remains Fragile
$XRP is currently changing hands near $1.15 after a sharp drop from mid-May highs. The asset remains below its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages. This positioning highlights persistent bearish momentum across several timeframes.
$XRP price dynamics. Source: TradingView.
In addition, the moving average structure continues to favour sellers. Short-term averages remain below long-term averages, signalling that downward pressure continues to dominate the market. The Donchian Channel also places $XRP near the lower boundary of its trading range, further supporting the view that bulls have not yet achieved a convincing recovery.
Immediate support lies between $1.095 and $1.105, where buyers previously appeared. Below this zone, $1.05 represents a critical technical low. A drop below this level could lead to a deeper decline in $XRP towards the psychologically important $1.00 mark.
On the other hand, resistance begins from $1.17 to $1.19. In addition, $XRP must overcome the $1.20–$1.24 correction zone before challenging more significant barriers at $1.30 and $1.38.
Open Interest Signals More Balanced Conditions
Derivatives data paints a different picture from the highly speculative environment seen during $XRP’s rally to multi-year highs. Open interest remained relatively subdued for most of the observed period before rising sharply during major price increases.
Source: Coinglass.
This speculative expansion eventually pushed open interest above $10 billion as traders aggressively increased leverage. However, the subsequent decline in both price and open interest reflected a broad unwinding of positions.
Recently, open interest has stabilised around $2–3 billion. As a result, the market appears less dependent on excessive leverage. This shift may reduce volatility risks while creating a healthier foundation for future price discovery.
Capital Outflows Continue to Weigh on Sentiment
Source: Coinglass.
Spot flow data shows that capital continues to leave the $XRP market more often than it enters. Although several accumulation phases appeared during the period, sellers generally maintained the advantage.
Notably, the large outflow in late November became the strongest wave of capital exit. Since then, negative net flows have persisted despite periodic buying spikes. Moreover, these continued outflows largely mirror $XRP’s declining price trajectory.
Technical Price Forecast for $XRP
Key levels remain clearly defined as $XRP attempts to stabilise after a prolonged correction.
Upside levels: $1.19, $1.24 and $1.30 represent the first serious obstacles for buyers. A decisive breakout above this resistance cluster could pave the way towards $1.38 and $1.45, where stronger selling pressure previously appeared.
Downside levels: immediate support is at $1.10, followed by the critical breakdown zone at $1.05 and the psychological $1.00 level. Losing $1.05 could accelerate downward momentum and trigger a new wave of selling.
Resistance ceiling: the $1.24–$1.30 region remains the most important recovery area for a medium-term bullish shift. $XRP continues to trade below major moving averages, keeping the broader trend under pressure.
The technical picture shows that $XRP is attempting to form a base after a sharp decline. However, the price remains stuck below key resistance, while spot market outflows continue to outweigh sustained accumulation. Meanwhile, open interest has stabilised after a major deleveraging phase, indicating lower speculative excess and a more balanced derivatives market.
Will $XRP Rise?
$XRP’s next move will largely depend on whether buyers can defend the $1.10 support zone and build enough momentum to reclaim the $1.19–$1.24 resistance area. A successful breakout could shift sentiment and open the path to $1.30, $1.38 and possibly $1.45.
However, failure to overcome resistance could strengthen the existing bearish structure. In that scenario, $XRP could return to $1.05 and potentially test the psychological $1.00 support level. For now, $XRP remains at a key technical crossroads, where improved capital inflows and stronger buying conviction will be needed to confirm a sustainable recovery.
See also: "Bitcoin’s Sharp Rise to $63,700 Triggers the Largest Short Liquidations Since Late April"
