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XRP Price Forecast: Can XRP Hold $1.09 Support While Sellers Dominate and Outflows Continue?
$XRP remains under strong pressure as technical weakness, declining speculative activity and persistent capital outflows continue to weigh on market sentiment. The cryptocurrency has lost several important support levels in recent weeks, leaving traders focused on whether buyers can defend the area around $1.10. Although oversold conditions point to a slowing sales impulse, broader market indicators still point to a difficult situation for the token.
The Technical Structure Remains Firmly Bearish
The daily chart shows that $XRP is trading around $1.13 after a sharp decline from previous highs. Importantly, the asset is now below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. This alignment reflects a strong downtrend and highlights the continuing control of sellers.
XRP price dynamics. Source: TradingView.
In addition, $XRP recently fell below the $1.27 Fibonacci support level. This breakdown exposed the key $1.09–1.10 region, which is now the most important support zone in the market. If buyers fail to defend this zone, the next downside targets appear near the psychological $1.00 level. A deeper break could open the door to the $0.95–0.90 range.
On the other hand, $XRP must first reclaim the $1.20–1.22 zone before bulls can restore momentum. Beyond this level, resistance strengthens near $1.27. In addition, the $1.32–1.38 area represents a serious obstacle, as it combines key Fibonacci retracement levels with several moving averages.
Falling Open Interest Signals Reduced Speculation
Source: Coinglass.
Derivatives data paints a similar picture. Open interest rose sharply during $XRP’s rally into the $3.50–3.70 range. At its strongest moments, leveraged positions pushed total open interest above $10 billion.
However, market conditions changed when prices entered a prolonged correction. As a result, traders gradually reduced exposure, leading to a sharp decline in open interest. The latest data shows stabilisation in the $2.8–3.0 billion range.
This development may have mixed consequences. On the one hand, lower leverage reflects weaker speculative demand. On the other hand, the removal of excessive leverage may create a healthier market structure for a future price recovery.
Persistent Outflows Continue to Weigh on Sentiment
Source: Coinglass.
Spot-market activity also reveals ongoing problems. Throughout the observed period, outflows consistently exceeded inflows, indicating that investors continue to move capital out of $XRP.
Although there were occasional spikes in inflows, they did not change the broader trend. In addition, large net outflow events often occurred during key periods of price decline, strengthening bearish sentiment.
Technical Price Forecast for $XRP
Key levels remain clearly defined as $XRP continues to trade under pressure ahead of the current cycle.
Upside levels: $1.20, $1.22 and $1.27 serve as immediate obstacles to recovery. A break above this cluster could increase growth towards $1.32 and $1.38, where several moving averages converge.
Downside levels: the $1.09–1.10 zone remains critical trend support. Below this area, the path opens towards $1.00, followed by $0.95 and $0.90 as deeper correction targets.
Resistance ceiling: the $1.27 level, which coincides with key Fibonacci resistance, is the main barrier that $XRP must overcome to change short-term momentum. Broader resistance strengthens around $1.32–1.38, where several technical indicators are concentrated.
The technical structure suggests that $XRP is consolidating in a bearish-to-neutral compression phase after a prolonged decline. Price action continues to trade below major moving averages, indicating that sellers still dominate the broader trend. However, oversold conditions are beginning to emerge, hinting at a possible expansion of volatility in the future.
Will $XRP Rise?
$XRP’s short-term direction depends on whether buyers can hold the $1.09–1.10 support zone long enough to build momentum towards $1.22–1.27. A sustained move above this resistance cluster could trigger a relief rally towards $1.32–1.38.
However, failure to hold current support risks accelerating downside pressure towards $1.00 and possibly deeper levels near $0.95. For now, $XRP is at a decisive technical stage, and market sentiment and liquidity flows will likely determine the next major move.
See also: "Bitcoin Price Pain Isn’t Over Yet as Selling Pressure Persists"
