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Bitcoin bullish sentiment index reaches six-month high: a bear market trap?
The Bitcoin bullish sentiment index has entered the neutral zone for the first time since October 2025 — amid a price increase to $78,000. However, analysts point to similarities between the current situation and the dynamics of the 2022 bear market.
1-week BTC/USD chart and 200EMA. Source: Bitstamp
Bull Score Index: from bearish zone to neutral
The online analytics platform CryptoQuant reports: the Bitcoin Bull Score Index (BSI) has reached a six-month high. The BSI aggregates nine metrics related to Bitcoin price movement and forms a composite picture of market conditions. After the bearish cycle gained momentum, the indicator remained firmly in negative territory — just as it did at the beginning of the previous bear market four years ago.
Bitcoin Bull Score Index. Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno reported on X: for the first time during this bear market, the BSI has reached the neutral level of 50 points. This fact in itself is notable — but with a caveat. In March 2022, the index had already entered the neutral zone for about a week, after which the price resumed its decline. History therefore warns: short-term relief does not necessarily mean a trend reversal.
At price levels around $74,000 last week, another platform analyst, Arab Chain, described the market situation as a “balance between supply and demand forces.” According to his assessment, the BSI reading indicates that the market is still far from the zone of sustained optimism — the one that begins above 60 points and historically corresponds to pronounced bullish conditions. At the same time, the market remains above the deep pessimism zone, characteristic of values below 40. In other words, Bitcoin is in a transitional phase — awaiting new catalysts that could determine the further direction of movement.
Fear is retreating, but not disappearing
At the same time, the overall tone of the crypto market has improved. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which tracks investor sentiment based on a set of factors, reached a value of 32 out of 100 as of Wednesday — the highest since mid-January 2026. For comparison, a week earlier the index had dropped to 23, corresponding to the “extreme fear” zone. In just over seven days, the indicator nearly tripled.
Nevertheless, a value of 32 still falls within the “fear” zone rather than “neutrality,” which begins at 50. Both indicators, BSI and Fear & Greed, are moving in the same direction: from pronounced negativity toward balance. How sustainable this movement will be will be shown by the close of the April monthly candle, which Bitcoin is approaching while attempting to break out of a multi-month range.
AI perspective
From a machine data analysis perspective, the shift of the BSI into the neutral zone is notable not in isolation, but in combination with the structural difference between the current cycle and that of 2022. The bear market four years ago unfolded without spot Bitcoin ETFs — institutional and retail investors operated through exchanges and self-custody. Today, ETFs form a separate channel of supply and demand that did not exist when all classical indicators, including the BSI, were originally calibrated.
See also: "Bitcoin holds above $78,000 amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz"
