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Bitcoin is vulnerable as holiday breaks end the flow of funds into ETFs and CME
Bitcoin is trading with fluctuations around $66,600 as the extended holiday breaks filter out potential buyers and give bears greater control over price dynamics.
With the upcoming pause in futures and ETF flows on CME for Good Friday, the market is heading toward a liquidity shortage just as its most reliable support source is weakening.
Bitcoin's support level at $65,000 starts to appear unsustainable as the most active buyers in the market become increasingly dependent on macroeconomic factors. In a recent report, CryptoQuant data shows that over the past 30 days, visible demand was around -63,000 $BTC, even though ETF and corporate investor purchases reached multi-month highs. Singapore's market maker Enflux noted that the lower price limit is "partially supported by expectations of rate cuts."
ETF purchases rose to about 50,000 $BTC over the past 30 days, reaching the highest level since October 2025, while Strategy accumulated about 44,000 $BTC during the same period. However, overall demand remained negative as sales from other market participants outweighed these inflows.
CryptoQuant's recent report states that the pressure is most noticeable among large holders. Wallets containing 1,000 to 10,000 $BTC have seen a trend of net distribution, with the balance change for the year dropping to negative 188,000 $BTC from positive 200,000 $BTC at the 2024 cycle peak. Mid-range holders have also sharply slowed down accumulation, while the Coinbase premium remains negative, signaling weak demand on the U.S. spot market.
As a result, the market shows a situation where the growth of institutional activity does not lead to increased price support. As more capital flows into ETF wrappers and regulated futures markets, the price of Bitcoin is increasingly formed by macroeconomically sensitive strategies like hedging and asset allocation changes, rather than broad accumulation on the spot market.
As Enflux writes, this strategy is now being tested by inflation data. The ISM index (Investment Service Index - index of prices paid by investors) surged to 78.3 in March, reaching the highest level since June 2022, undermining expectations for short-term rate cuts. Enflux stated that the reevaluation has already shown in the fund flow: for the week ending March 24, the net outflow from ETFs was $296 million, and in early April, the inflow was negligible.
Long weekends eliminate a key stabilizer. With CME's closure and the suspension of ETF creation and redemption, institutional demand, which had been increasingly stabilizing Bitcoin's price, will be virtually absent, leaving trading on spot markets where selling pressure has been the most persistent.
CryptoQuant stated that any recovery rally may face resistance in the range of approximately $71,500 to $81,200, levels that previously limited rebounds in the current bear market structure.
A broader test awaits with the release of inflation data in the U.S. on April 9. If the core PCE figure for March exceeds the February figure of 3.1%, expectations for a rate cut may further weaken, strengthening the bearish scenario for Bitcoin.
