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Bitcoin trapped below $74,000 ahead of $9 billion options expiry
The Bitcoin market is approaching one of the largest options expiries of recent months in a tense state. The price of $BTC has dropped below $74,000, while sellers have gained a noticeable advantage ahead of the settlement of around $9 billion in options. Against this backdrop, market participants are increasingly discussing the possibility of a new decline toward the psychological $70,000 mark.
Pressure is building from several directions at once. Investors continue to pull money from spot Bitcoin ETFs, companies are reducing their $BTC holdings on balance sheets, and the derivatives market is showing growing caution among traders.
Bears enter expiry in a stronger position
On Friday, Deribit open interest in Bitcoin call options, $BTC.
On May 29, the market will see the monthly expiry of Bitcoin options, a significant share of which is concentrated on the Deribit exchange. Total open interest in contracts exceeds $6 billion on this platform alone.
On Friday, Deribit ($BTC) open interest in Bitcoin put options.
The problem for buyers is that the drop below $78,000, which began back in mid-May, has significantly changed the balance of power. If $BTC remains below $74,000 at settlement, a large share of call options will lose value.
Ratio of Bitcoin put and call option volumes, U.S. dollars
In this scenario, only about $306 million in call contracts would remain in the money. By comparison, put options with settlement levels from $74,000 and above are valued at more than $1 billion. The difference shows that the current market structure is much more favorable for sellers.
Deribit, June 26: Bitcoin options prices
Even if Bitcoin manages to return above $74,000 before expiry, the advantage will still remain with the bears.
Liquidations increased nervousness
The recent decline toward $72,500 delivered an additional blow to sentiment. During the downward move, the market lost about $342 million in leveraged long positions.
Such liquidations usually intensify short-term pressure. Traders who had expected growth are forced to close positions, while some participants prefer to temporarily move into cash or stablecoins.
After the rebound to $73,500, the situation stabilized slightly, but buyers have not yet managed to regain control of the market.
ETFs continue to lose capital
The situation around U.S. spot ETFs also remains a serious factor. In recent days, investors have withdrawn more than $1 billion from Bitcoin funds. Such outflows do not always mean that the decline will continue, but they do indicate weaker interest from major market participants.
It is especially important that the reduction in capital inflows is happening at a time when Bitcoin is trying to hold above key technical levels. The market is effectively losing one of its main sources of fresh liquidity.
Companies have begun reducing $BTC holdings
Another worrying signal has come from corporate Bitcoin holders. French company Sequans Communications announced plans to sell its $BTC reserves completely and abandon its accumulation strategy. At the same time, some publicly listed miners and several other companies have also reduced the share of the leading cryptocurrency on their balance sheets.
This does not yet amount to a mass sell-off of corporate reserves, but the very emergence of such decisions is increasing caution among investors.
The market does not believe in a quick return to $80,000
Sentiment in the June options market also looks fairly restrained. Contract pricing shows that traders estimate the probability of $BTC rising above $80,000 by the end of June at around 18%. This suggests that most participants do not expect a quick recovery after the May correction.
This assessment looks especially telling given that, just a few months ago, the market was actively discussing a move toward new all-time highs. Now investors’ attention has shifted toward capital protection and liquidity preservation.
What’s next?
The coming days could be decisive for Bitcoin’s short-term trend. The expiry of large options positions could increase volatility, while the current distribution of contracts favors sellers.
As long as $BTC remains below $74,000, the advantage stays with the bears. Additional pressure comes from ETF outflows, reductions in corporate reserves, and weak demand for upside exposure in options.
If buyers fail to quickly push the price back above key levels, the market could once again test the $70,000 area. For Bitcoin to return to a confident bullish scenario, it needs not only to hold current supports but also to restore interest from institutional investors.
See also: "Crypto Price Analysis May-29: ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, and HYPE"
