Fed shuts the trap: Bitcoin loses its main growth driver

Oil at $200 is no longer a theoretical scenario but a real forecast from the world’s крупнейшие banks. And this is now driving all markets — from equities to crypto.

This scenario was analyzed in a new video by blogger Coin22, explaining why the oil crisis, Powell’s speech, and potential Fed leadership changes are pressuring Bitcoin — and what to expect next.

Oil, Iran, and alarming numbers

It all began with a U.S. military operation in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — for the first time in history. Brent surged past $100, prompting banks to revise forecasts:

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast above $100 and acknowledged that prolonged conflict could drive prices even higher.
Citibank expects $120+ in its base scenario and $150–200 in a worst-case scenario.
JP Morgan warns of a real supply deficit: the market is already short about 7 million barrels per day, with potential shortages reaching 12 million.

At such oil prices, the economy doesn’t just slow — it becomes dysfunctional. China and the EU are especially vulnerable due to heavy import dependence. This is classic stagflation: rising costs, slowing growth, and limited effectiveness of monetary tools.

However, panic may be premature. Donald Trump still has tools at his disposal: a release of 172 million barrels from strategic reserves (as part of a 400 million barrel international package) has been approved, easing sanctions on Iranian oil (~140 million barrels) is under discussion, and production has been expanded in Venezuela. According to the author, many of these levers have yet to be fully deployed.

The Fed and Bitcoin’s outlook

Jerome Powell’s March 18 speech crushed expectations of imminent rate cuts. The Fed kept rates in the 3.5–3.75% range, signaling that inflation remains above 2% and urgency is low. Officials even discussed potential rate hikes — which alone pushed Bitcoin below $73,000.

The key intrigue now is Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump to replace Powell as Fed Chair. Powell’s term ends on May 15, but Senate approval is delayed due to an investigation into over $2 billion spent on Fed building renovations. If Warsh is not confirmed in time, Powell will remain acting chair.

The blogger argues that Warsh’s appointment could shift the Fed’s tone. Trump is unlikely to support someone who would maintain high rates — especially ahead of elections, when economic stimulus is needed. A shift toward easing by summer appears plausible.

For Bitcoin, this means short-term pressure and consolidation around $70,000 amid rising bond yields and ongoing Iran tensions. But if the Fed pivots, capital is likely to flow back into risk assets — with Bitcoin among the primary beneficiaries.

See also: "Bitcoin today: rises above $71K amid mixed signals"

#Fed #Bitcoin (BTC) #Oil

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