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The Current Bitcoin Bull Cycle Has Not Yet Reached Its Peak Levels
The Bitcoin Cycle Indicators Index (IBCI) has once again reached the distribution zone — an area that has historically signaled market euphoria and the approach of price peaks. This is the third time in the current bull cycle. However, this time, the index value only touched the lower boundary of the zone — 80%, which is below the 100% levels that historically indicated the end of the growth cycle.
This dynamic suggests that the BTC market is in an expansion phase but has not yet shown signs of overheating. This is confirmed by the key components of the IBCI: the Puell Multiple and the short-term profit ratio (STH-SOPR), both of which remain below the median line. This means that retail speculators and short-term traders are not yet demonstrating the kind of activity typical of the final growth stage.
The Puell Multiple indicator, which reflects the ratio of miner profits to the Bitcoin price, also remains closer to the “discount” zone. According to analysts, this is surprising, considering that the BTC price recently hit a new all-time high and remains near peak levels. This situation suggests that digital asset miners are not yet locking in excessive profits — a behavior usually observed in the late stages of a market cycle.
Thus, the IBCI remains grounded in a fundamental base that still shows no signs of excessive market euphoria. This indicates room for further price growth before the potential cycle peak is reached. Market participants can expect further upward movement unless abrupt external changes occur.
Nevertheless, the current IBCI levels serve as an important signal for investors: the market is entering a zone of elevated short-term correction risk. This does not imply an immediate reversal but calls for greater caution when opening new positions. Investors are advised to continue monitoring the Puell Multiple and STH-SOPR — both indicators still point to potential growth.
See also: "Bitcoin Price Today: Falls Below $118K Amid Regulatory Caution; Altcoins Decline"
