Hyperliquid Launches a Prediction Market Without Intermediaries

The largest decentralised futures trading exchange has placed its bet on full independence from external sources of information for its prediction market.

Hyperliquid, the largest decentralised exchange for trading perpetual futures, has introduced new functionality for its real-world event prediction market. Unlike the sector’s largest platforms and, at the same time, its competitors — Polymarket and Kalshi — the exchange may become independent of external data sources, or oracles.

“Hyperliquid has just eliminated the need for external oracles in prediction markets. Validators are now the oracles themselves. Hyperliquid has made event outcome resolution a native function of the blockchain,” Hyperliquid developer Yaugourt wrote on X.

He emphasised that Hyperliquid’s solution differs from competitors precisely because it does not use oracles such as Chainlink, Pyth and $UMA, or any other third parties. This mechanism embeds prediction markets directly into the base infrastructure of the Hyperliquid protocol, theoretically eliminating dependence on third-party oracles in principle.

The first Hyperliquid market operating on the new mechanism without external data sources was launched on 25 May for the “US Consumer Price Index for May, year-on-year”. As of 26 May, there are five such markets in total, with combined open trading interest of around $250,000.

For context, Polymarket, which operates on smart contracts, requires special oracles. These services provide the information needed to determine the “fairness” of a particular event. Put simply, the resolution of an event outcome is handed over to the third-party oracle protocol $UMA, where holders of $UMA tokens vote to determine the final result.

Another major prediction platform, Kalshi, by contrast, is a centralised platform and uses an internal team that reviews evidence and determines market resolutions. This is precisely where Hyperliquid’s main difference lies: as explained in the team’s announcement, the new markets are supported by automated software that validators run as part of their normal operations. In other words, no external services are responsible for supplying data — all processes take place within the Hyperliquid ecosystem.

In the case of Polymarket, there have been instances where users exploited system inefficiencies to “fake” voting outcomes. For example, in 2025, the platform suffered such an attack on a separate betting pool with a volume of more than $7 million.

Hyperliquid’s Competitors

Hyperliquid, which specialises in perpetual futures (perps), announced the launch of real-world event prediction markets in early May as part of the HIP-4 update. However, interest in the new instrument turned out to be relatively low. As of 26 May, the total notional trading volume on its prediction market exceeded $76 million, or only 0.3% of the sector’s total figure.

The launch of the prediction platform came several weeks after reports emerged that Polymarket and Kalshi planned to launch their own platforms for trading perpetual futures — in other words, to move in the opposite direction, attempting to win market share from Hyperliquid.

Nevertheless, despite Hyperliquid’s minimal market share at the end of May, many experts have assessed the platform as promising. At present, the main inconvenience with Polymarket and Kalshi is the isolated nature of their betting functionality. On Hyperliquid, however, event bets exist within a unified ecosystem where a user can hold several positions — spot, futures and prediction positions — on one account under shared collateral.

Another group of experts believes that Hyperliquid could reach audiences in countries that do not have access to major betting platforms, or where their functionality is restricted. For example, several US states are suing these platforms in an attempt to limit their operations. In addition, US President Donald Trump, who had previously praised the industry for predicting his victory in the 2024 election, recently said that he “conceptually does not like” prediction markets, noting that the world has turned into a “casino”.

The operations of Polymarket and Kalshi are already partially or fully restricted in many countries, including Russia, Spain, Indonesia, Singapore, Belgium, Italy, Ukraine, Portugal and Argentina.

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#Prediction Market

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