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QCP Capital: This Week Could Be Decisive for the Crypto Market
Trading firm QCP Capital released a new analytical report emphasizing that the current week could be crucial for the cryptocurrency market. The firm believes that upcoming events are more important for Bitcoin than traditional macroeconomic factors.
Trump–Xi Meeting More Important Than Fed Decision
According to QCP Capital experts, cryptocurrencies rebounded following constructive trade talks between the U.S. and China over the weekend. The agreements reached have set the stage for a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on October 30, where a potential trade deal could be signed.
Analysts say the outcome of this meeting could shape the short-term trajectory of cryptocurrencies more than the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision expected on Wednesday. However, the Fed’s main focus will be on ending its three-year quantitative tightening program. Any sign that this might happen earlier than expected would support risk assets and boost liquidity expectations.
Bitcoin Stuck in a Sideways Range
Currently, Bitcoin is trading with little change month-to-date, hovering near early October levels. With a busy week of earnings reports from major tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Google, and Meta, investors are seeking direction amid an information lull caused by the U.S. government shutdown.
Weak stock performance could hurt sentiment and derail Bitcoin’s attempt to extend its seven-year “Green October” streak.
Domestic Issues Pressure Markets
QCP Capital notes that domestic optimism is fading. The U.S. government shutdown, now in its 26th day, is expected to extend into November. This marks the second-longest shutdown in U.S. history after the 34-day standoff in 2018, also under Trump’s presidency.
The Federal Reserve is effectively operating blind, as limited macroeconomic data leaves both policymakers and markets uncertain. Although rate cuts are already priced in, the impact of the prolonged shutdown remains underestimated.
Sentiment Indicators Shifting
Analysts observe that risk reversals for Bitcoin and Ethereum have shifted from a heavy bias toward put options to near-neutral levels, suggesting that investors have become less cautious.
However, it’s still too early to call for a renewed bull trend — Bitcoin must rise above $116,000 and close the month at that level to confirm a breakout.
