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Analyst Sean Farrell, who accurately predicted the recent decline, forecasted the future of Ethereum: “A strong recovery could occur within 12 months”
Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, a company founded by Tom Lee, shared his latest analysis of Ethereum.
According to the analysis, although there remains a short-term downside risk, there is strong potential for recovery over the next 12 months.
According to Farrell’s estimates, the average cost basis of Ethereum per investor is $2,241. The current price of $1,934 means that investors are on average down 22%.
Based on historical data, the analyst noted that the average maximum investor loss reached 39% in 2022, while in 2025 it stood at 21%.
Applying these historical figures to the current average cost basis, the analyst forecasts that Ethereum’s price could potentially fall to $1,367 or $1,770.
On the other hand, analysis based on percentage drawdowns since 2017 shows that the current average loss is historically near the upper bound — at around 9%. This suggests that in previous cycles, under similar conditions, a strong recovery followed.
According to the model, Ethereum’s potential return over the next 12 months is 81%. Analysts believe this indicates that the price may be approaching its bottom.
Tom Lee also shared commentary on social media, stating that such research is particularly important for assessing investor fund flows and position allocation during periods close to market lows.
According to Farrell’s report, although short-term volatility risks remain, Ethereum’s risk-reward ratio points to positive long-term prospects.
See also: "Expert: The Biggest Chapter in Crypto History Is Still Ahead"
