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Opinion: Bitcoin has ended its bear market relative to gold
Bitcoin ($BTC) has gone through a 14-month bear market relative to gold and is ready for growth. This was indicated by several indicators that showed a classic reversal signal.
In particular, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) metric fell to its lowest level in history and is close to forming a bullish crossover. In 2019, 2021, and 2023, similar changes preceded an increase in the $BTC/XAU ratio by 280–620%.
Weekly chart of $BTC/XAU. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView.
The relative strength index (RSI) on the weekly chart reached its maximum oversold level of 21 in mid-February and has now recovered to 33. Combined with the MACD buy signal, the situation is beginning to resemble previous cycles.
“The bottom in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has been reached. […] Everything is set for a reversal,” said technical analyst James Isto.
The last time the leading cryptocurrency formed a bottom relative to the precious metal was in November 2022. This was followed by a 700% rally to a record $126,200.
GeoMetric noted that the last three $BTC/XAU bear markets lasted from 12 to 14 months, with corrections ranging from 75% to 84%.
In the current cycle, about 13 months have passed, and the pullback has reached 81%.
“There are strong grounds for a bottom formation,” the experts explained.
Monthly chart of $BTC/XAU. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView.
Investor and analyst Crypto Fergani supported his colleagues.
“For over 13 years, we have observed the same pattern: Bitcoin enters a bear market relative to gold that lasts about 400 days. During this time, RSI falls into deep oversold territory. Historically, these phases have always marked a bottom,” he noted.
Above $70,000
The price of the leading cryptocurrency is holding the support zone at $68,000–70,000. This is where the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day simple moving average are located.
The first indicator forms a key support zone during bear markets. According to experts, a weekly close above this range will strengthen the bulls’ case.
Analyst AlphaBTC projected a recovery of Bitcoin to $80,000, provided the price remains above the weekly low of $68,800.
8-hour chart of $BTC/USD. Source: X/AlphaBTC.
