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Wintermute: A U.S.–Iran ceasefire could push Bitcoin toward $80,000
- Wintermute analysts stated that Bitcoin is holding up better than many traditional risk assets amid macro volatility.
- The firm believes that a resolution of the U.S.–Iran conflict would be a bullish factor for the asset. According to experts, the future trajectory of Bitcoin will depend on how the conflict evolves and on flows into spot ETFs.
- Bitcoin is showing relative resilience despite macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical instability, according to the market maker’s analysts.
They highlighted Bitcoin’s stability even during sharp fluctuations in equity markets. Wintermute also focused on whether Bitcoin can reclaim its “store of value” narrative.
Analysts noted that gold has been the clear beneficiary of inflation risks and military escalation, significantly outperforming Bitcoin. At the same time, if inflationary pressure persists, the asset could partially catch up.
Factors supporting this scenario include Bitcoin’s limited supply, lack of central bank influence, and increased spot market liquidity driven by ETFs.
Wintermute also pointed out that the next test for the market will be the impact of higher energy prices on the broader economy. The report states that Bitcoin mining is becoming more self-sufficient and may be less vulnerable to oil shocks than traditional sectors.
Against this backdrop, two scenarios are possible: Bitcoin either holds its ground and strengthens its role as a store of value, or it increases correlation with equities again and declines alongside them.
Impact of the U.S.–Iran conflict
The firm stated that resolving the conflict would be a bullish factor, while delays would be a structurally negative signal for the market.
According to Wintermute, Bitcoin holding steady after renewed escalation is a sign of real demand. Additional confirmation comes from inflows into spot ETFs last week.
Experts added that a new ceasefire could push Bitcoin’s price closer to $80,000. At the same time, further escalation would likely pressure the market.
They also noted the relative weakness of altcoins compared to Bitcoin, calling it a typical feature of a macro-driven market.
In conclusion, Wintermute emphasized that a full-fledged bullish trend in the crypto market has not yet been confirmed.
Earlier, analysts reported that miners sold around 61,000 BTC.
See also: "What levels must Bitcoin break to start rising? An analyst named two levels!"
