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Brent Oil Falls Below $99 After Trump Signals Possible US-Iran Deal While Bitcoin Holds Near $77,000
During the Memorial Day weekend, oil markets moved lower after US President Donald Trump stated that an agreement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was “mostly agreed,” pushing Brent crude below the $99 level while Bitcoin remained near $77,000 as US stock exchanges stayed closed for the holiday.
Key Takeaways:
- On May 24, Brent crude fell below $99 after Trump said a US-Iran agreement was “mostly agreed” and aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- JPMorgan Chase forecasts that Brent crude could average $60 in the long term if tensions ease, while WTI crude could decline toward $80 if supply restoration is confirmed.
- Bitcoin held near $77,000 throughout the Memorial Day weekend as crypto markets remained open while NYSE, CME, and US bond markets were closed on May 25.
Trump Signals US-Iran Deal, Sending Brent Below $99 While WTI Targets $80
Brent crude dropped roughly 4.87% during weekend CFD trading to around $98.87, extending the pullback from Friday’s close near $103.
The July 2026 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract closed Friday at $97.00, rising 0.67% during the session, although weekend indicators pointed lower.
Earlier in May, Brent traded above $110 amid supply concerns linked to the US-Iran conflict before sharply declining whenever negotiations advanced.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the key factor. Roughly 20% of global oil trade passes through the waterway, while Iranian restrictions combined with US naval activity reduced supply by more than 10 million barrels per day at the peak of disruptions following the escalation of hostilities in late February.
Each round of ceasefire signals triggered double-digit price declines within a single trading session.
Trump’s weekend remarks intensified bearish sentiment. The president said the agreement was close and expected to include a 60-day extension of the truce, potential sanctions relief, and delayed negotiations regarding the nuclear programme.
Iran reportedly submitted revised proposals, while regional players including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are said to be involved in the process.
Key sticking points remain Iran’s control over the strait, uranium stockpiles, and concerns raised by Israel.
Brent crude oil futures. Image source: TradingView.
Traders expect that confirmation of a deal could push WTI toward the $80 level.
Infrastructure repairs and shipping logistics may delay a full normalisation of supply flows for weeks or even months, but markets are already pricing in a restoration of flows.
If negotiations collapse, the geopolitical risk premium could quickly return.
The futures curve reflects mixed expectations. Brent contracts for August delivery traded near $99.50, September contracts around $96.00, while later-month prices declined as markets priced in potential normalisation.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase forecast average Brent prices around $60 if geopolitical tensions ease and the anticipated surplus materialises later in 2026.
Other analysts expect second-quarter average prices to remain closer to the $90–100 range due to ongoing disruptions.
Previous Pakistan-mediated ceasefire negotiations earlier this spring triggered some of the sharpest single-day price drops of the year. The same pattern is now repeating.
Optimism surrounding a deal reduces the risk premium, while any breakdown in negotiations restores it.
Traders preparing for Tuesday’s session are waiting for official confirmation.
Throughout the weekend, Bitcoin traded within the $76,700–$77,200 range without a significant breakout in either direction.
Crypto markets operate around the clock and remained the only major financial market active during the US holiday.
Ethereum and altcoins moved broadly in line with Bitcoin, while total trading volume remained relatively low and price action subdued.
At least for now, as of 8:30 PM Eastern Time on Sunday evening.
On May 25, US stock markets, bond markets, and CME energy futures operated under holiday restrictions.
Normal trading will resume on Tuesday, May 26. That session is expected to reflect any developments regarding the agreement that emerge during the long weekend.
Anything could happen in the meantime.
The short-term direction of oil prices remains heavily event-driven.
A confirmed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would rapidly change the supply outlook.
Traders who were speculating on oil prices above $110 earlier in May have already seen how optimism surrounding a deal translates into falling prices.
Bitcoin consolidation near the $77,000 level held despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical instability.
Whether conditions change on Tuesday will largely depend on what happens in a strait located 7,000 miles away.
As usual, cryptocurrency markets may feel the impact first.
See also: "Rumours of a US-Iran Deal Add $500 Billion to the Stock Market"
