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Bitcoin loses 5.4% following the Fed’s decision: forecasts range from a drop to $76,000 to a rise toward $780,000
Bitcoin fell to $89,418 on the Binance exchange, which corresponds to a 5.44% price decrease from December 9, when the asset climbed to $94,640. This occurred after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time.
1-day BTC/USD chart. Source: Binance
Network economist Timothy Peterson believes that lowering rates amid still elevated inflation is normal practice. He reminded that the Fed did this for two decades in the 1980s and 1990s.
Technical analysis and key levels
Analyst Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin is moving in line with expectations. After reaching the upper boundary of the $93,000–95,000 range, the asset is heading toward the lower boundary. If momentum continues, a decline into the $86,000–87,500 zone is possible. If this zone holds, a rebound to higher levels may follow. Otherwise, Bitcoin may fall to $80,000 or lower.
1-day BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Crypto Candy
Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out Bitcoin’s consolidation within an ascending triangle over the past few weeks. A breakout and hold above $94,000 should lead to a move to retest the previous support zone around $98,000, where a significant amount of liquidity is also concentrated.
4-hour BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Daan Crypto Trades
Conflicting forecasts
Analysts’ opinions regarding Bitcoin’s next move differ dramatically. Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe adheres to a bullish scenario. He noted that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting typically triggers volatility, so holding above $91,800 is not guaranteed. However, if this level holds, further movement of Bitcoin toward $100,000 is very likely.
6-hour BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Michaël van de Poppe
In contrast, trader Roman forecasts a drop to $76,000. He points to bearish divergences and the corresponding price action. In his view, the reduction of interest rates does not matter, and the price will continue to decline.
1-day BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Roman
The creator of the Bitcoin quantile model, PlanC, presented a long-term perspective. His base scenario suggests a significant probability of reaching rare heights within the next 1–2 years. According to the model, the “rare heights” zone (quantiles 95–99.9) implies levels from $192,000 to $780,000 in 2026–2027. At the very least, the model forecasts reaching the “elevated level” (quantiles 85–95) with targets ranging from $151,000 to $599,000 during the same period.
Bitcoin price quantile model. Source: PlanC
See also: "The total value of XRP on crypto exchanges has fallen by $1 billion. What does this mean?"
