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The 13% barrier is holding back Bitcoin’s price recovery
Bitcoin is trading around $87,820. The market situation remains stable throughout the day, but over the past 30 days the asset has lost about 4% of its value. Buyers activate with every dip, but recovery attempts consistently fade within a narrow range. Analysis of on-chain metrics revealed a clear reason why the price cannot overcome the current resistance.
Experts call this the “13% problem.” The key resistance level is exactly at this distance from the current quotes. Until this barrier is taken, the upward momentum will continue to fade.
Short-term holders are forming a price ceiling
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis model from the analytical platform Glassnode tracks the average purchase price of assets by recent market participants. This category of investors usually reacts most sharply to volatility. When the market price falls below their entry point, they tend to sell assets to avoid large losses. This behavior creates an automatic layer of pressure from sellers.
Currently, the average entry price for this group is $99,790. This is about 13% above the current spot price. At quotes around $87,820, most recent buyers are in the zone of unrealized losses. Accordingly, any Bitcoin rally faces sales from those looking to break even.
Cost basis model
Cost basis model: Glassnode
The HODL Waves metric, which divides investors by the length of coin holding, confirms this hypothesis. The share of coins held by the cohort of holders from 1 day to 1 week (short-term speculators) sharply decreased. The indicator fell from 6.38% of the supply on November 27 to 2.13% by December 27. New players prefer to get rid of coins rather than hold them. This strengthens resistance even before the price approaches $99,790.
Short-term holders reduce supply
Short-term holders reduce supply: Glassnode
Thus, the $99,790 level becomes the most important resistance on the chart in the near term. If the price can hold above it, short-term holders will move into profit. In this case, forced sales will stop, and market pressure will ease.
Lack of momentum for a breakout
On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin moves within a “symmetrical triangle” pattern. This pattern forms when descending highs and ascending lows converge at one point. The figure signals uncertainty and a balance of power between bulls and bears. To confirm the further direction, a price exit beyond the triangle is needed.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which measures capital inflows and outflows, shows mixed signals. CMF rises with the price, indicating the presence of buyers. However, the indicator is still below zero.
Buyer pressure is not strong enough
Buyer pressure is not strong enough: TradingView
A negative CMF value means that capital inflow is not strong enough to confirm a sustainable trend. Accordingly, the current momentum is not enough to break through the upper boundary of the triangle. Buyers are present in the market but cannot yet turn the situation in their favor. Without CMF closing above zero, Bitcoin’s price will likely continue to move sideways under the pressure of short-term sellers.
Key levels and event scenarios
At the end of December, Bitcoin was squeezed in a corridor between $84,370 and $90,540. Every approach to the upper boundary was accompanied by loss-taking by “underwater” holders. This completely matches the cost-basis resistance level.
The further roadmap looks as follows. The first sign of progress will be surpassing the $94,600 level. If the growth continues and the price recovers above $99,820, the 13% barrier will be broken. This will allow the negative trend to be reversed and bullish sentiment to return to the market.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin price analysis: TradingView
If successful, the next target will be $107,420. If buyers fail to hold the defense, the first support will be at $84,370. Closing the daily candle below $80,570 will confirm a downside breakout and expand the decline range, setting a negative tone for January.
See also: "Traders are puzzled as to why bitcoin is lagging behind gold, silver, and stocks"
