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Bitcoin Price Forecast: Saylor Calls It a “Spring Phase” as BTC ETFs Lose $2.15 Billion in Two Weeks
Bitcoin is trading at $77,208 on 22 May, remaining below all four EMAs, while spot Bitcoin ETFs are recording a second consecutive week of more than $1 billion in outflows.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor told CNBC that the market has already bottomed near $60,000 and is now entering what he describes as a “spring phase”.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: EMA Cluster Overhead, FVG Zones Below
Daily Bitcoin price action. Source: TradingView.
Bitcoin lost the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $79,249 along with the ascending channel formed from April lows.
- The 20 EMA stands at $78,274;
- the 50 EMA at $76,802;
- the 100 EMA at $76,886.
All three EMAs are now converging near the current price, turning the $76,800–$78,300 range into overhead resistance rather than support.
Every rebound attempt into that zone is facing immediate selling pressure due to the overlap of the three EMAs.
Above current levels:
- the 200 EMA sits at $81,637;
- the 0.705 Fibonacci level stands at $81,958.
These macro resistance levels rejected Bitcoin earlier in May.
Below current price levels:
- the 0.5 Fibonacci support lies at $75,574;
- three FVG zones are positioned between $67,500 and $72,500.
Key BTC Levels for 23 May
Resistance:
- $78,274 (20 EMA);
- $81,637 (200 EMA);
- $81,958 (0.705 Fib).
Support:
- $75,574 (0.5 Fib);
- $71,898 (0.382 Fib);
- FVG cluster between $67,500 and $72,500.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reach $2.15 Billion in Two Weeks
The week ending 21 May recorded $1.15 billion in outflows even before Friday’s trading session.
The previous week saw another $1 billion withdrawn.
That marks two consecutive weeks with more than $1 billion in outflows — the largest and most sustained institutional de-risking event since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
IBIT from BlackRock led the outflows on 21 May with $103.65 million exiting the fund.
Total net ETF assets now stand at $101.06 billion, down from the early-May peak of $109 billion.
Cumulative net inflows since launch still total $57.19 billion.
The strong inflow weeks seen in April, when ETFs attracted between $800 million and $1 billion weekly, have now completely reversed.
The past two weeks have shown persistent one-way capital outflows.
Michael Saylor: “The Market Has Entered a Spring Phase”
Michael Saylor told CNBC that:
- Bitcoin peaked around $125,000 in October;
- bottomed near $60,000;
- and is now entering a “spring phase” supported by strong demand at current levels.
He expects Bitcoin to eventually outperform the S&P 500, targeting annual growth of roughly 30%.
Saylor also described the current macroeconomic headwinds as temporary.
STRC and “Digital Credit”
On the STRC platform, Saylor described the product as a structured instrument that converts expected Bitcoin capital appreciation into an 11.5% tax-deferred dividend.
He compared it to a bank account paying four times more than traditional money-market products.
According to Saylor:
- the product grew from zero to $10.5 billion within ten months;
- with an annualised growth pace of approximately $24 billion.
He also argued that Strategy’s credit market is absorbing nearly the entire organic Bitcoin supply produced by miners.
According to him, the company is purchasing more BTC in 2026 than miners are generating.
Saylor additionally dismissed quantum computing as an existential threat, stating that the network could be upgraded within months if a genuine vulnerability ever emerged.
Bitcoin Price Forecast for 23 May
Bullish Scenario:
A daily close back above $78,274 would reopen the path toward $81,637.
Potential catalysts include:
- progress within the US Senate;
- or slowing ETF outflows.
Saylor’s “spring phase” thesis alongside the MVRV accumulation zone supports a medium-term bullish outlook.
Bearish Scenario:
Friday’s ETF data could push weekly outflows above $1.2 billion.
As long as price remains below $78,274, the EMA cluster continues acting as overhead resistance and increases downside risk toward $75,574.
A daily close below that level would expose the FVG cluster between $67,500 and $72,500.
See also: "Bitcoin Faces Familiar Bearish Trend as Analysts Warn of a 2022-Style Breakdown Risk"
