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False breakout of resistance: Bitcoin risks falling to $61,000
After Bitcoin rose above $74,000 on March 4, it failed to hold key levels. Over the following three days the price fell by 7.6%, and analysts point to the risk of a further decline toward $61,000.
1-week chart of $BTC/USD and 200EMA. Source: Bitstamp
Technical outlook: bears remain in control
Trader Crypto Candy states that Bitcoin is moving according to a bearish scenario, exactly as expected after the asset failed to hold above $70,000.
A short-term bounce may occur in the $65,000–66,000 range, but the overall outlook remains negative. As long as Bitcoin trades below $74,000, the next target remains $61,000.
1-day chart of $BTC/USD. Analysis: Crypto Candy
Analyst Rekt Capital highlights the behavior of the weekly candle relative to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). Bitcoin briefly moved above this level with a wick but failed to close above it, creating a classic false breakout that erased the recent rally.
If the weekly candle closes below the 200-week EMA, the level will be confirmed as strong resistance, which would be a concerning signal for bulls.
Bitcoin vs. gold: divergence remains
Michaël van de Poppe notes that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at historically low levels.
His conclusion is clear:
- Gold is overbought in the short term,
- Bitcoin is oversold.
Part of gold’s overheating may be explained by a geopolitical premium linked to tensions in the Middle East. If the escalation begins to ease, gold prices could correct, potentially shifting the balance between the two assets.
The bullish divergence remains, but confirmation of a reversal requires a clear momentum shift in the coming days.
1-day chart of $BTC/GOLD. Analysis: Michaël van de Poppe
Mining costs and companies holding Bitcoin
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju provided concrete figures: according to the latest report from mining company MARA, the cost of mining one Bitcoin is $70,027.
At current price levels, this means miners are operating close to break-even or even at a loss, a factor that could increase selling pressure.
Even more telling are the numbers from Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments:
77% of companies holding Bitcoin on their corporate balance sheets are currently at a loss on their purchases.
The last time a similar situation occurred was May 2022, during the peak of the major bear market.
AI perspective
Historical pattern analysis adds a concerning context. May 2022, referenced by Charles Edwards as a parallel to the current situation with corporate Bitcoin holders, was not a local bottom but rather the middle of the crash. Bitcoin later lost another ~50%, falling to $16,000.
In addition, according to Rekt Capital, the shortest bear market in Bitcoin’s history lasted 365 days, while the current one has lasted around 140 days so far. By historical standards, it may still be in an early stage.
See also: "Bitcoin falls below $70,000 amid macroeconomic pressure"
