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XRP Price Forecast: Polymarket Gives Just 6% Odds of $1.50 This Week as Supertrend Turns Bearish
XRP is trading at $1.3710 on 21 May, sitting below all four EMAs, while the Supertrend indicator has turned bearish for the first time since April. Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket assign only a 6% chance of XRP reclaiming $1.50 by Saturday, while Crypto Michael describes the current move as a deliberate “shakeout” before a breakout begins.
XRP Daily Chart: Supertrend Turns Bearish, Support at $1.3296
Daily XRP Price Action (Source: TradingView)
The daily chart deteriorated following the sharp CLARITY Act rally to $1.55 on 15 May. Since then, the price has posted lower highs in every session and currently trades at $1.3710 — below the 20 EMA at $1.4053, the 50 EMA at $1.4105, the 100 EMA at $1.4812, and the 200 EMA at $1.6886. All four EMAs are sloping downward and signalling bearish conditions.
The Supertrend indicator at $1.3296 flipped bearish with today’s candle, dropping below the current price and no longer acting as a bullish signal. This level now serves as critical support for the bullish case.
Below $1.3296, the symmetrical triangle base near $1.30 becomes the next support level, while the February low at $1.15 represents the worst-case scenario.
The red resistance zone at $1.55, which has capped XRP since the CLARITY Act rally, remains the key upside barrier. Reclaiming $1.40, where the 20 EMA and 50 EMA converge, is the first step before $1.55 becomes relevant again.
Key XRP Levels for 22 May
- Resistance: $1.4053 (20 EMA), $1.4105 (50 EMA), $1.4812 (100 EMA), $1.55 resistance zone
- Support: $1.3296 (Supertrend), $1.30 triangle base, February low at $1.15
- 200 EMA: $1.6886, macro resistance ceiling
Polymarket Prices a 25% Chance of XRP Falling Below $1.30 This Week
The weekly prediction market covering 18–24 May on Polymarket gives XRP only a 6% chance of reclaiming $1.50 by Saturday, sharply down from 21% earlier in the week.
The downside scenario targeting $1.30 is now priced at 25%, with three days remaining. Odds of moving above $1.60 fall to 2% or lower across all levels.
The monthly market remains equally bearish. The probability of XRP dropping below $1.20 by the end of May stands at 21%, while the chance of closing above $1.60 is just 2%.
The crowd is not pricing in a recovery but rather a continuation of the current decline with only occasional rebound attempts.
XRP ETF Flows Remain Stable Despite Falling Prices
Spot ETFs tracking XRP recorded $1.45 million in daily inflows on 20 May, following $1.48 million during the previous session. Both figures remain modest but consistently positive, keeping total net inflows at $1.39 billion.
Canary’s XRPC ETF led inflows on 20 May with $1.45 million. Total net assets across all products stand at $1.13 billion, down from the earlier monthly peak of $1.25 billion due to declining prices.
A notable pattern is emerging in ETF flows: institutional buyers continue accumulating XRP through ETF products even as the price breaks below key support levels. This gradual accumulation during weakness sends a different signal from the behaviour seen among retail traders in derivatives markets.
Crypto Michael: This Week’s Drop Is a Shakeout, Not a Top
Crypto Michael stated that XRP will “shake traders out” this week before a breakout begins, presenting the current decline as deliberate positioning by large players to flush out weak hands before an upward move.
The thesis aligns with the broader pattern:
- three months of negative funding rates while price remained suppressed;
- the CLARITY Act catalyst that lifted XRP to $1.55 before retracing;
- and now the Supertrend reversal, which appears bearish at first glance.
XRP Price Forecast: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for 22 May
Bullish Scenario
Holding the Supertrend support at $1.3296 and reclaiming $1.4053 on a daily close would shift momentum.
Progress in the US Senate regarding the merger of the CLARITY Act with the Agriculture Committee’s version could become the catalyst for the breakout recovery referenced by Crypto Michael.
The first upside targets remain $1.4812 followed by $1.55.
Bearish Scenario
A daily close below $1.3296 would directly activate the triangle base near $1.30.
Polymarket’s 25% bearish scenario could materialise if Treasury yield pressure and the lack of Senate progress continue throughout the week.
Losing the $1.30 level on a daily close opens the path towards $1.15.
