XRP Price Forecast: Weak Momentum Persists as Open Interest Stabilizes Around $2.8 Billion

$XRP continued to struggle near key resistance levels this week as weakening momentum and declining trader activity kept the token under pressure. The cryptocurrency traded around $1.35 after failing to hold gains above an important Fibonacci resistance zone. Alongside broader crypto market weakness, declining speculative demand has also weighed heavily on $XRP’s recovery outlook.

$XRP Faces Strong Resistance Pressure

$XRP maintained a weak-to-neutral daily structure as sellers defended several technical barriers. The token remains below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day exponential moving averages, highlighting ongoing short-term weakness. In addition, the 200-day EMA near $1.67 continues to act as a major obstacle for any sustainable bullish rebound.

The latest pullback began after $XRP failed to hold above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near $1.49. As a result, the price declined toward the lower retracement zone around $1.34. Buyers attempted to stabilize the market near the $1.30 support area, but upside momentum remained limited.

$XRP Price Action (Source: TradingView)

Technical indicators also reflected slowing market strength. The Bollinger Band %B indicator remained near moderate levels, signaling lower volatility and a lack of aggressive buying activity. As a result, $XRP may continue trading sideways unless bulls reclaim the clustered EMA resistance levels.

Key resistance zones are currently located around $1.38, $1.41, and $1.49. A breakout above these levels could revive bullish momentum and push $XRP toward $1.55. A stronger rally could eventually open the door toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $1.71.

On the downside, immediate support remains around $1.34, followed by the psychological $1.30 region. A deeper decline below $1.28 could trigger another wave of selling pressure.

Open Interest Declines After Massive Rally

$XRP derivatives data showed a major shift in trader participation over the past year. Open interest remained below $1 billion for months before surging sharply during the explosive rally in late 2025. It later exceeded $10 billion amid heightened speculative activity in the futures market.

However, the trend reversed after $XRP lost momentum. Traders gradually reduced leveraged positions as volatility declined. Recent data showed open interest stabilizing around $2.8 billion, reflecting lower risk exposure and a calmer trading environment.

$XRP Open Interest (Source: CoinGlass)

Exchange Flows Continue to Signal Caution

Spot inflow and outflow data also painted a cautious picture for $XRP. Persistent exchange outflows dominated over recent months, with several periods recording net outflows exceeding $100 million. At the same time, the price of $XRP gradually weakened from above $3.00 toward the current $1.30–$1.50 range.

Although recent outflows appeared smaller, buyers still lacked the strong inflows needed for a sustainable recovery. As a result, market confidence remained fragile as traders monitored broader crypto sentiment and macroeconomic conditions.

$XRP Exchange Flows (Source: CoinGlass)

Technical Outlook for $XRP

Key levels remain critical for $XRP as the price consolidates below major moving averages after losing momentum near the upper Fibonacci resistance zone.

Upside levels:
$1.3880, $1.4190, and $1.4950 remain immediate resistance barriers. A confirmed breakout above this range could open the path toward $1.5516 and potentially the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $1.7152.

Downside levels:
$1.3490 serves as the first support zone, followed by the psychological $1.30 level and deeper support around $1.2869. Losing these levels could accelerate bearish momentum and expose $XRP to additional downside pressure.

Major resistance ceiling:
The 200-day EMA near $1.6752 remains the primary level bulls must reclaim to restore the broader bullish market structure. $XRP also continues trading below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs, reinforcing short-term weakness.

The broader technical structure suggests that $XRP is stabilizing within a wider consolidation range following the sharp correction from yearly highs. Momentum indicators remain subdued, while Bollinger Band compression signals a possible volatility expansion ahead. However, market direction will likely depend on whether buyers can regain control of the EMA resistance zone.

Will $XRP Rise?

The near-term outlook for $XRP largely depends on whether bulls can defend the $1.30–$1.34 accumulation zone while rebuilding momentum above $1.40. Open interest has fallen significantly after peaking above $10 billion, indicating reduced speculative activity and a more cautious trading environment.

At the same time, exchange flow data still shows dominant outflows, reflecting ongoing selling pressure in the market. However, recent outflows have started to slow, suggesting that bearish momentum may gradually stabilize.

If buyers reclaim $1.4950 alongside stronger spot inflows and rising market participation, $XRP could challenge $1.5516 and eventually target $1.7152. However, failure to hold the $1.30 support zone could trigger another corrective move toward $1.2869 and lower.