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Bitcoin has a 51% chance of falling below $45,000 by 2026: Polymarket
- Polymarket estimates a 51% probability that Bitcoin will drop below $45K, demonstrating a divided market outlook.
- An analyst points to October–November 2026 as a likely cycle bottom around $45K–$50K.
- Bitcoin declined by 4.49%, while volume increased by 18.8%, signaling rising selling activity.
Bitcoin’s price may fall further, as Polymarket traders now estimate a 51% probability of it dropping below $45,000 by December 31, 2026. This follows the U.S. Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged.
Bitcoin’s price today fell below $70,000 from a recent high of $76,000 on March 17. Meanwhile, market analysis also shows that the price may not have reached its bottom yet.
Polymarket shows a divided outlook on Bitcoin’s decline
Polymarket data shows that traders price “Yes” shares at $0.51 and “No” shares at $0.49 on whether Bitcoin will fall below $45,000 by the end of 2026. This pricing indicates an almost balanced market, with only a slight bias toward a bearish outcome.
The probability chart showed that sentiment fluctuated mainly between 44% and 49% before rising above the midpoint. This late move pushed expectations into negative territory, although the market remained nearly evenly split.
Analysts estimate Bitcoin cycle bottom in late 2026
Beyond prediction markets, crypto analyst NoLimit highlights historical patterns suggesting that Bitcoin’s bottom may occur only at the end of 2026.
Looking at past cycles, Bitcoin reached its lowest point 406 days after the 2012 halving peak, 363 days after the 2016 peak, and 376 days after the 2020 peak. NoLimit notes that the current cycle, following the 2024 halving, has not yet reached this stage.
The analyst also highlighted the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which historically enters the “blue zone” near major bottoms. Bitcoin has not yet reached this level, suggesting a potential price range of $45,000 to $50,000 before confirming the cycle bottom.
Bitcoin dropped 4.49% amid increasing selling pressure
In the short term, Bitcoin has already shown signs of weakness. At the moment, BTC is trading at $69,852, down 4.5% over the past 24 hours after opening around $74,000.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market capitalization declined by 4.51% to $1.41 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume increased by 18.8% to $46.77 billion.
Although long-term prospects remain uncertain, both prediction market data and historical cycle analysis indicate that Bitcoin has not yet reached its final bottom in this cycle.
