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Bitcoin may test $75,000 resistance or $62,000 support on April 10
- This week, crypto market participants are expected to gain clarity on Bitcoin’s short- and medium-term outlook.
Depending on U.S. economic data, Bitcoin may test resistance at $75,000 or support at $62,000. - Bitcoin started the week consolidating below $70,000. On a broader scale, price remains within a compression range between $65,000 and $71,000, which has persisted for several weeks.
- From a structural perspective, $73,700 is the ближайший resistance level, followed by the psychologically important $75,000 level, which has acted as a key pivot since the last failed breakout.
BTC/USD chart. Data: TradingView
A weekly close above $75,000, supported by volume driven by CPI data, would be the first structural confirmation that the bullish scenario remains intact.
The daily RSI is around 53, indicating neutral conditions and no oversold signal. This suggests that no technical bottom has formed purely due to momentum exhaustion. The 200-day EMA is approaching the $67,500 support zone, making it a key short-term level.
A daily close below $67,500 would open the path toward $62,000, where significant order book depth and previous accumulation structures are located. The MVRV ratio remains below 1.5, indicating the market has not yet reached euphoria, but on-chain demand is also insufficient to sustain upward momentum.
Market scenarios
The bullish scenario requires a breakout above $71,000, followed by a move to $73,700 with strong volume and a close at $75,000.
The bearish scenario would be triggered by rejection at $71,000, followed by a move below the 200-day EMA and a decline toward the $60,000–$62,000 accumulation zone.
Macro factors in focus
The outcome will largely depend on U.S. CPI data, which influences the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System.
Energy market conditions may push inflation higher, potentially forcing the regulator to maintain or raise interest rates.
At the same time, 178,000 jobs were added in March, and unemployment remained at 4.3%, suggesting no immediate recession risk and supporting a steady policy stance.
The April 10 inflation release is expected to reshape not only Bitcoin’s trajectory but also broader expectations around rate cuts and institutional positioning in crypto markets.
Data: CoinGlass
Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity Investments (FBTC) show a direct correlation with whether inflation data exceeds or falls below forecasts.
See also: "Traders Hedge Risks: Bitcoin Put Options Outpace Calls — 54.87% vs 45.13%"
