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Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Holds Rising Channel as $598M ETF Inflows Target $74,000
$BTC is trading at $72,896 as of April 11, holding within a rising 30-minute channel, while the daily index remains above three EMAs and spot ETFs show a second consecutive day of inflows totaling $598 million.
Daily BTC Chart: $74,000 Is the Only Key Level
Daily BTC price action (Source: TradingView)
The 20-day EMA at $69,930 and the 50-day EMA at $70,709 are now below price and acting as support. The SAR at $66,478 sits further below. Above, the 100-day EMA at $75,397 and the 200-day EMA at $83,521 remain resistance levels.
An ascending wedge from the February low at $60,000 pushes price toward the upper boundary around $73,000–$74,000 — the same zone where a descending channel from October caps the rally. Two resistance lines at the same level make a daily close above $74,000 a trigger for the next growth phase. Losing the 50-day EMA at $70,709 on a daily close opens the path to SAR at $66,478.
Key levels for April 12:
SAR support: $66,478
20-day EMA: $69,930
50-day EMA: $70,709
Resistance zone: $73,000–$74,000
100-day EMA: $75,397
200-day EMA: $83,521
February low: $60,000
BTC 30-Minute Chart: Rising Channel Intact, MACD Turns Positive
BTC price action (30-minute) (Source: TradingView)
The 30-minute chart shows a clean rising channel from the April 8 low near $67,000, with each pullback holding above the previous low on April 9, 10, and 11. Price sits near the mid-channel at $72,896, with the upper boundary at $75,000–$76,000 and the lower near $71,500.
RSI at 51.70 is slightly above the signal line at 48.78, indicating a mild bullish bias without expansion. The MACD histogram is positive at 9.37, while the fast line remains below zero, suggesting momentum is building without full confirmation. Holding above $71,500 preserves the short-term structure; losing it shifts focus back to daily EMAs.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows: Two Consecutive Days, $598M Total
After outflows of $124.55M and $159.05M on April 7 and 8, ETFs flipped to inflows: $358.17M on April 9 and $240.42M on April 10. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $137.56M on April 10, while Fidelity’s FBTC added $78.02M. Total net assets stand at $94.96B, representing 6.47% of Bitcoin’s market cap.
Two days of inflows coincided with BTC rising from $68,000 to $73,000, confirming institutions bought the dip rather than chased the rally.
BTC Derivatives: Shorts Suffer Five Times More Than Longs
BTC derivatives data (Source: Coinglass)
Trading volume dropped 26.09% to $51.05B, while open interest (OI) rose 4.25% to $54.67B. Positions are being held rather than added. The long/short ratio remains stable at 1.002, with Binance accounts at 0.7565 and OKX at 0.85.
Shorts saw $42.54M in liquidations over 24 hours versus $7.65M for longs. Options OI increased 2.69% to $33.24B — marking a second consecutive day of growth for BTC.
BTC Price Forecast: Outlook for April 12
Upside: The 30-minute channel holds above $71,500, and daily closes above $73,000–$74,000 target the 100-day EMA at $75,397. ETF inflows above $200M per day sustain institutional demand.
Downside: A break below $71,500 disrupts the channel, the 50-day EMA at $70,709 fails, and SAR at $66,478 becomes the next test. A close below $66,478 opens the path to the February low at $60,000.
See also: "Bitcoin may test $75,000 resistance or $62,000 support on April 10"
