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Bitcoin drops below $63,000 amid miner capitulation and ETF outflows
Bitcoin fell below $63,000, further reinforcing February’s downtrend. Over the month, the asset has lost about 30%, indicating not only short-term volatility but also structural market weakness. The pressure stems from two key factors: large-scale selling by miners and shrinking institutional demand through exchange-traded funds.
The situation is unfolding during the longest miner capitulation phase of the year. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs are recording sustained outflows. As a result, the market has approached one of the most significant support levels of the current cycle.
Miner capitulation intensified price pressure
A “head and shoulders” pattern has formed on the eight-hour chart. The neckline runs near $60,000, making this level a key short-term support zone. A breakdown could accelerate the decline.
Current $BTC structure: TradingView
According to data from Glassnode, the miner net position indicator has remained negative from January 9 to February 23. This 46-day stretch marks the longest continuous capitulation phase on a yearly basis. The peak in selling occurred on February 6, two days after a local low near $60,400.
Miner capitulation phase: Glassnode
Capitulation means miners are selling more Bitcoin than they are accumulating. Typically, such behavior reflects financial stress rather than profit-taking. The reason is clear: network revenues have declined significantly.
Miner revenue declines: Dune
According to Dune analytics dashboards, monthly fees fell from 194 $BTC in May 2025 to 65 $BTC in February 2026 — a drop of nearly two-thirds. With declining revenues and simultaneous price correction, miners are forced to increase reserve sales to maintain operational stability. This expands market supply and intensifies downward pressure.
ETF outflows increase risks for $60,000 support
Institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs has also weakened. Funds have recorded outflows for six consecutive weeks — the longest streak of net weekly withdrawals since the product’s launch.
Weak ETF flows: SoSo Value
Such dynamics indicate declining interest from large investors in expanding positions. Moreover, the synchronization of outflows and technical weakness increases the asset’s sensitivity to macroeconomic factors.
“Bitcoin is currently trading in the $64,000–$66,000 range, and in our view macroeconomic factors are decisive. Sellers are still exerting noticeable pressure, making Bitcoin highly sensitive to news, while the recent escalation around tariffs has further undermined risk appetite,” she said.
She also highlighted the key market level:
“From a technical perspective, as long as the $60,000 zone remains key support — but if, under the influence of a strong macroeconomic event or accelerated ETF outflows, the price drops below it, Bitcoin could fall to $50,000. Liquidity is high there, support is strong — and a rebound with a new growth phase would likely start from that level,” she added.
Her remarks clearly link ETF flows and macroeconomic pressure with Bitcoin’s internal structure. This risk becomes especially evident when compared with the coin’s realized price.
The realized price is currently around $54,700. This level reflects the average cost basis for all circulating Bitcoin. Historically, the market often stabilizes near this level, as it represents the aggregate holding cost for most participants.
Bitcoin realized price: Glassnode
If demand for Bitcoin ETFs continues to decline and $BTC falls below $60,000, the realized price could become the next major support level. At present, this zone is becoming particularly important.
Why $60,000 has become decisive
Recent Bitcoin price action confirms the importance of the $60,000 level, as previously noted by a Bitget executive. This mark already acted as support on February 6 — when peak miner capitulation was recorded in the current cycle. Additionally, this same level coincides with an important Fibonacci retracement zone — around $60,100.
The convergence of these factors strengthens the significance of this area from both psychological and technical perspectives. If Bitcoin consolidates above it, the price may stabilize and resume growth.
However, a decisive break below $60,000 would confirm the “head and shoulders” scenario. Based on structure and technical retracement levels, this would open the path toward a decline to $54,800 — almost exactly matching Bitcoin’s realized price.
Bitcoin price analysis: TradingView
In this context, Gracy Chen’s warning deserves attention. She emphasizes that $60,000 remains key support, and continued ETF outflows could intensify the decline — fully aligning with the current technical picture. The market is now at a decisive level.
Some strengthening of positions may occur if Bitcoin’s price recovers above the key resistance levels of $63,300 and then $65,400. However, the bearish scenario has not yet been fully invalidated.
Miner capitulation continues to increase supply, while ETF outflows signal weakening institutional interest. As long as these factors persist, the $60,000 level remains the dividing line between stabilization and a deeper correction.
See also: "Bitcoin in free fall: why a rebound may turn out to be a trap"
